There is nothing more dangerous than an autocrat who has managed to dupe the public into thinking that they are good at managing the economy, or are the key to maintaining security. That the Trump years saw reasonable levels of economic and job growth while inflation stayed under control, helped the public look the other way from the constant stream of warnings that Trump was the biggest threat to democracy since the civil war.
But will the US actually fall to autocracy? Full blown authoritarianism is unlikely, but the signs are clear that the US will at the very least become a hybrid regime under Trump, or a semi-autocratic regime, similar to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.
It’s not just that the country will be led by Trump and his allies, who want to personalise power into his own hands and exercise unlimited power. It’s that he is the perfect vessel for even more nefarious actors to implement an extreme agenda, such as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and the American First Policy Institute (AFPI).
While Project 2025 has received more media attention, it is AFPI that is closest to the Trump team. There are more than 300 executive orders that have been drafted and are ready to be signed into action by Trump .
Expanding US power?
One of the synergies between Trump and these organisations, is that they want to greatly expand executive power. Part of this involves ensuring that every federal agency demonstrates devout loyalty to Trump. This cuts at the heart of an impartial and experienced administration.
The state will be hollowed out and increasingly more ineffective, unable or unwilling to deliver key services, like disaster aid. While this may seem harmless to some, Trump will undercut the expertise of executive agencies either by under-funding them or filling them with loyalists.
Plans are in the works to fire 50,000 career civil servants. Hundreds of important regulations that ensure that there is clean air and water, which protect citizens from corporate greed, are likely to be rolled back.
Trump has openly bragged about implementing the biggest deportation effort in US history. In order to round up over 11 million undocumented immigrants, part of Trump’s campaign promise, checkpoints will likely have to be erected to search and seize migrants.
Trump may have to rely on mobilising local police forces. More troubling is that this could spawn vigilante justice movements that take matters into their own hands, and try to round up immigrants in the name of Trump’s directive.
Trump has also claimed that the biggest threats to the US emanate not from North Korea or Russia, but from within, warning that he will use the national guard on its own people. Will the US security institutions be willing to exert force on its own citizens?
All of this has been facilitated by a pliant judiciary and legislature. The Supreme Court, one-third of which was handpicked by Trump, has already shown its true colours. It overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, threatening reproductive rights in many states and creating a health crisis for many American women. Some doctors believe it has led to a rise in maternal death rates.
Then in 2024 the Supreme Court ruled that Trump is essentially immune from prosecution, so he can seemingly abuse power if he sees fit, just like a dictator.
Trump has also made clear that he will weaponise the justice system against his political opponents. He has already warned about what he will do to politicians like Democratic former house speaker, Nancy Pelosi. In total Trump has made over 100 threats to investigate and imprison his political opponents.
Dangers of opposition
The dangers of speaking out are already evident. Jeff Bezos, who founded Amazon and owns the Washington Post, refused to allow the news organisation to make presidential endorsements.
On the day of this announcement, executives from Jeff Bezos’ aerospace company, Blue Origin, met with Trump. Blue Origin and Amazon are among the companies that will now have to compete for lucrative federal government contracts.
The media is supposed to constitute the fourth estate that keeps leaders in check and serves as a watchdog. But media organisations will likely be increasingly less willing to risk their financial future by criticising Trump directly.
Project 2025 aims to place major limits on the US media. Publicly funded news organisations such as Voice of America, NPR and PBS will likely have their funds cut, while making it easier for investigators to seize journalists emails and phone records.
Who are Trump’s key lieutenants?
This time Trump will not be surrounded by those with expertise that are willing to push back against his own worse impulses. Very few members of his former cabinet are willing to work with him again. A new Trump administration will be one where the president is increasingly isolated from those with government experience.
And although there is absolutely no evidence of fraud, Trump has sowed doubt about the legitimacy of American elections. One third of Americans did not believe that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected .
Trump then stoked anger over this so-called stolen election which led to an unprecedented siege on the Capitol, where seven people died and over 140 police officers were injured .
Attempts to generate doubt in US electoral processes has affected American political culture. While 75% of Americans believe that democracy is currently under threat, still nearly one third of Americans would actually like to live under a strongman.
Trump has certainly shattered democratic norms. Polarisation existed before Trump came on the scene, but his divisive and inflammatory rhetoric certainly did not help matters. Today fewer Americans think that the other party shares their values and goals than in the past.
Trump gave legitimacy to white supremacists repeatedly, bringing out extremists from the fringes to the mainstream. This culminated in the shameful reaction to the violent march in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017, when he refused to condemn the neo-Nazis shouting “Jews will not replace us,” and claimed that that there were very fine people on both sides.
While many Americans were outraged, few Republicans spoke out against this. The Republican party has become remarkably pliant to Trump’s whims. That’s the concern about a Trump presidency. Who will stop him? No one in Hungary’s Fidesz party checked the power of prime minister Viktor Orbán when he began to erode media and other freedoms.
While the US will not likely become a full blown authoritarian regime, it is certainly no longer a fully functioning democracy. And America voted for it.
