Make no mistake, New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs lost big on Monday night. The province’s voters delivered a forceful rebuke of Higgs’ Progressive Conservatives similar to the 1995 election, when the party won only six seats against Frank McKenna’s Liberals.
This time, the PCs were reduced to 16 seats while the Liberals won 31. The Greens dropped to two seats.
This seat count downplays the Liberals’ 13-point popular vote lead in a tough political environment.
Historically, the Liberals have had inefficient support that’s been concentrated in safe francophone ridings. This time, they made inroads with anglophones beyond Moncton.
Higgs, among Canada’s most socially conservative premiers, lost his own safe seat of Quispamsis, which was among the province’s most Conservative ridings in the 2020 election.
The result was a referendum on Higgs’ brand of conservatism. Along with the failure of the resurgent Conservatives in British Columbia to win a clear victory on Oct. 19, Higgs’ loss challenges the narrative that conservatism is on the rise across Canada.
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Governing to the (far) right
Since gaining power in 2018, Higgs embraced a neoconservative social agenda.
Most notably, he triggered a national conversation on trans children’s recognition in schools. Using the language of “parental rights,” Higgs introduced parent consent restrictions for name and pronoun changes for children under 16.
New Brunswick’s LGBTQ+ safe schools debate makes false opponents of parents and teachers
Research shows trans children have high rates of suicidal ideation, especially when they’re not supported in how they identify.
Over time, Higgs supported anti-trans and anti-sex education protesters, even as many advocates, parents and educators raised concerns about the safety and mental well-being of LGBTQ+ youth. He also refused to deny what’s known as the so-called kitty litter myth that falsely alleges students are allowed to identify as animals and use litter boxes.
When confronted by parents about a safe-sex presentation slide for a high-school audience, Higgs banned the group that conducted the presentation.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephen MacGillivray
It didn’t end there. Higgs erroneously suggested an Indigenous nation sought to claim most of the province from property owners. In 2021, his government discouraged land acknowledgements by provincial employees. Higgs also argued that Indigenous people had already ceded their land.
Taking aim at francophones, social issues
Higgs’ relationship with francophones was just as bad. He refused to learn French in Canada’s only bilingual province after promising he would. He alleged he was unfairly targeted as an anglophone.
When coming to power in 2018 with a minority government, Higgs weakened bilingual requirements for paramedic positions. Later, he controversially proposed ending French immersion programs, arguing it was unfair to “English Prime” students in the province.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese
When he won a majority in 2020, Higgs lowered taxes on the highest income earners while constraining increases to health care and education.
Higgs was successful in uniting the right. As a former leadership contender of the linguistic segregationist Confederation of Regions party, Higgs welcomed far-right People’s Alliance representatives to his party.
But his tenure faced internal opposition. Atlantic conservatism tends to be closer to the political centre. Higgs’ Maritime counterparts, Premiers Dennis King of Prince Edward Island and Tim Houston of Nova Scotia, have largely avoided social issues.
On the province’s Policy 713, also called the Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity policy, six PCs voted with an opposition motion against the proposed changes. Four were cabinet ministers.
Several ministers resigned from cabinet with letters blasting Higgs’ leadership.
Almost half of PC riding associations sought a leadership review. They fell just short of the minimum needed to trigger a review.
Most leaders recognize when their time was up. Not Higgs.
An embattled campaign
The PCs’ tumultuous time in government made for an uninspired campaign. Twelve of the 26 winning PC representatives from 2020 did not run again. In their place came more social conservatives who would not oppose Higgs.
The PCs received bad news early. They were projected to fall short of their 2024-25 balanced budget aims.
Still, Higgs campaigned on his fiscal management. He offered a two per cent HST cut as a reward. For some, this proposal rang as vote-buying from a government that could have pursued a sales tax cut at any point in its six-year tenure.
The PCs campaigned on few other commitments. Their two-page platform made generic promises like “respect parents.” They also sought to “compel individuals into drug treatment” and “axe the carbon tax.”
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ron Ward
Meanwhile, the Liberals hammered the PCs on housing, health care and education. All three areas had been stressed by population growth and tight funding. Housing policy was a particular weakness given the PCs’ long-term resistance to rent caps and its record as a housing-starts laggard.
Higgs’ confidence in his record was misplaced. While his social conservativism has an audience in New Brunswick, few saw it as a priority relative to the cost of living.
His other campaign efforts made little difference. Higgs sought to make his opponent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He also stirred anti-immigration sentiment over federal asylum-seeker plans. Both efforts seemed desperate.
Rejection of grievance politics?
The Liberals’ return to power could be attributed to a referendum on Higgs. There is no doubt Higgs had personal defects that cost him his own riding.
But his loss is more than a personal rejection. It also seems a rejection of a grievance politics that favours anger over substance.
After repeatedly focusing on social issues over matters like housing, the grievances lost their allure. Even for the most steadfast Conservative voters, Higgs’ targeting of minorities came across as bullying.
While Higgs may be the worst offender, he is not the only practitioner of grievance conservatism. Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith play the same tune. Will their political fates be any different?
