Voters overall are divided in their predictions about how Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would perform as president – with negative expectations outweighing positive ones for both candidates. And while majorities of voters see both Trump and Harris as bringing change to Washington – though more say this about Trump than Harris – they are also split over whether that change would have positive or negative effects.
Would Trump and Harris be above or below average presidents?
Voters are more likely to say each of the presidential candidates would be poor or terrible presidents than to say they would be good or great at the job.
More voters today say Trump would be a “good” or “great” president than say this about Harris (41% vs. 36%). But similar shares of voters say each would be a “poor” or “terrible” president (48% say this about Trump, 46% about Harris).
Views of a potential second Trump presidency are more polarized than views of a potential Harris presidency: Voters are more likely to say Trump would be great than to say this about Harris (22% vs. 14%). But they’re also more likely to say Trump would be terrible (38%) than to say the same for Harris (32%). Voters are more likely to predict Harris would be an “average” president (18% say this about her, 11% about him).
Supporters’ views of their candidate
While most supporters of both candidates offer positive predictions about how their candidate would perform as president, Trump supporters are more likely to say a potential Trump presidency would be good or great than Harris’ supporters are to say this about her.
- 84% of Trump supporters say he would be a good or great president, including 46% who say he would be great. Just 13% say he’d be an average president.
- 73% of Harris supporters say that she would be a good (44%) or great (29%) president, while 24% say she’d be an average president.
Very small shares of each candidate’s supporters (just 2% each) say their candidate would be a poor or terrible president.
Supporters’ views of the opposing candidate
About nine-in-ten among both Harris supporters (91%) and Trump supporters (89%) predict that the opposing candidate would be a poor or terrible president. Harris supporters are particularly likely to say Trump would be a terrible president (76% say this). By comparison, 67% of Trump supporters predict Harris would be terrible.
Who would bring change – for good or bad – to Washington
An overwhelming majority of registered voters say that Trump would change the way things work in Washington, but they are fairly divided over whether that change would be for the better or for the worse.
While 41% say Trump would change things for the better, a somewhat larger share (48%) say he would change things for the worse. Relatively few (10%) say that he would not change things much either way.
In contrast, three-in-ten voters say Harris would not change things much either way in Washington, while 41% say she would change things for the worse and 29% say she would change things for the better.
Harris and Trump supporters have different opinions on whether their candidate would change the way things work in Washington:
- 40% of Harris supporters say that Harris would not change the way things work much in Washington, while 59% say she’d change things for the better.
- 86% of Trump supporters say Trump would change things for the better. Just 12% say he would not change things much.
Overwhelming shares of both Harris (92%) and Trump (83%) supporters say the opposing candidate would change things in Washington for the worse. But Trump supporters are more likely to say Harris would not change things much (16%) than Harris supporters are to say this about Trump (6%).
Harris presidency: Biden’s policies versus a new direction
Nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) expect Harris to continue President Joe Biden’s policies, while about four-in-ten (41%) expect her to take the country in a different direction.
- Among the 58% who say Harris would continue Biden’s policies, far more say this would be a bad thing (41%) than say it would be a good thing (16%).
- Those who say she’ll take the country in a different direction are more likely to say this would be good (30%) than bad (10%).
Harris supporters
More than half of Harris supporters (58%) say she would take the country in a different direction – and they nearly unanimously view this course positively.
About four-in-ten Harris supporters (41%) say that she would continue Biden’s policies and most of this group (33%) say doing so would be a good thing for the country.
Trump supporters
Conversely, an overwhelming majority of Trump supporters (76%) say Harris would continue Biden’s policies – and this group nearly unanimously sees that as bad for the country. Only about a quarter of Trump supporters (23%) say Harris would take the country in a different direction – and most of this group (19%) say that would be a bad thing.
Have Harris and Trump clearly explained their views on issues?
When it comes to several major issues, voters are fairly divided on whether the candidates have clearly explained their policies and plans, with two notable exceptions.
- 75% of all voters say Harris has clearly outlined her views on abortion, including 93% of her supporters and 59% of Trump backers. About six-in-ten voters (61%) also say Trump has been clear about his views on abortion.
- 70% of all voters say Trump has clearly explained his policies and plans for addressing illegal immigration. Nearly all of his supporters (94%) and about half of Harris’ supporters (48%) say Trump has been clear about his plans on this issue.
At least half of each candidate’s supporters say their candidate has clearly outlined their policies and plans for each of the policy domains asked about in the survey. But no more than a quarter of each candidate’s supporters say the other candidate has been clear about their policies and plans – with the exceptions of both candidates’ abortion policies and Trump’s policies on immigration.
Trump supporters are somewhat more likely than Harris’ to say their candidate has been clear on issues, while also being less likely to say the candidate that they oppose has clearly outlined their positions.
Addressing the concerns of supporters versus all Americans
Both Harris (89%) and Trump (86%) supporters overwhelmingly say that, if their candidate is elected, they should focus on addressing the concerns of all Americans – even if it means that some of their supporters will be disappointed.
Only 10% of Harris supporters and 14% of Trump supporters say that their candidate should focus primarily on the concerns of those who voted for them without worrying too much about the concerns of those who did not.
These opinions closely mirror those of Biden and Trump supporters in 2020.
Views of whether the next president will work with the opposing party
A 55% majority of voters say it is likely that Harris will work with Republicans in Washington if she wins. A much smaller share (37%) say it is likely Trump will work with Democrats if he wins.
Majorities of each candidate’s supporters believe it is at least somewhat likely that their candidate will work with the opposition on important issues facing the country:
- 91% of Harris supporters believe it is very or somewhat likely she will work with Republicans in Washington if she wins, including 38% who say this is very likely.
- 70% of Trump’s supporters think he’d be at least somewhat likely to work with Democrats if he wins. Just 19% say this is very likely.
In 2016 – the last time this question was asked leading up to an election – voters were more likely than they are today to say Trump would work with Democrats if he won (45% said this was at least somewhat likely).
Voters’ assessments about whether Harris would work with Republicans are on par with their beliefs about a potential victory for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
