US Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup for the 2026 Midterms

Voters at a polling station in Midlothian, Virginia, on Nov. 7, 2023. (Julia Nikhinson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Roughly 250 million adult U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in the 2026 midterm elections.

White Americans make up the majority of these eligible voters (61%), but their share has fallen markedly since 2006. Meanwhile, Hispanic (16%) and Asian (5%) eligible voters’ shares have almost doubled in the past 20 years. The share of Black eligible voters (12%) has changed little over the same period.


The racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. electorate shifted between 2006 and 2026

% of U.S. eligible voters who are …

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Columns do not total 100% because eligible voters who gave other answers, including those who chose more than one race, are not shown.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS). Figures for 2026 are Pew Research Center projections based on Census Bureau estimates.
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

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The racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. electorate shifted between 2006 and 2026

% of U.S. eligible voters who are …

Year White Hispanic Black Asian
2006 74 9 12 3
2008 73 9 12 3
2010 72 10 12 4
2012 71 11 12 4
2014 70 11 12 4
2016 69 12 12 4
2018 67 13 13 4
2020 65 14 12 4
2022 64 14 12 5
2024 63 15 12 5
2026 61 16 12 5

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Columns do not total 100% because eligible voters who gave other answers, including those who chose more than one race, are not shown.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS). Figures for 2026 are Pew Research Center projections based on Census Bureau estimates.
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


(In this report, White, Black and Asian adults are those who report being only one race and are not Hispanic. Hispanic adults are of any race.)

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, here is a look at the racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. electorate. National counts of eligible voters for 2026 are Pew Research Center projections, based on Census Bureau estimates. State-level counts and demographic characteristics are based on 2024 American Community Survey data, the most recent detailed figures available.

Pew Research Center has previously published data about the ways that political preferences and voting patterns differ by race and ethnicity. For details, refer to recent publications covering partisan identification trends since 2020; voting patterns in the 2022 midterms; voting patterns in the 2024 presidential election; and 2026 midterm voting intentions.

Jump to the following for more about:

The U.S. electorate has grown and become more diverse since 2022

Since the 2022 midterm elections, the number of U.S. eligible voters has increased by 8.4 million to around 250 million (up 3%).

More than half of this growth came from Hispanics, who added 5.2 million eligible voters between 2022 and 2026 to reach 39.0 million (up 16%). Hispanic eligible voters are now the second-largest group after White voters. (Hispanic eligible voters surpassed Black eligible voters for the first time in 2018.)


Since 2022, Hispanics have added more eligible voters than any other group, while Asians have grown the fastest

U.S. eligible voters, by race and ethnicity

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Estimates are rounded to the nearest 50,000. Percentages and changes are calculated from unrounded numbers. Subtotals do not add up to totals because eligible voters who gave other answers, including those who chose more than one race, are not shown.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2022 American Community Survey (IPUMS). Figures for 2026 are Pew Research Center projections based on Census Bureau estimates.
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER



Since 2022, Hispanics have added more eligible voters than any other group, while Asians have grown the fastest

U.S. eligible voters, by race and ethnicity

2026 Change
2022-26
% change,
2022-26
Group
White 153,000,000 -2,600,000 -2% Race
Hispanic 38,950,000 5,250,000 16% Race
Black 30,650,000 1,650,000 6% Race
Asian 13,650,000 2,250,000 20% Race
All U.S. eligible voters 249,750,000 8,450,000 3% Total

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Estimates are rounded to the nearest 50,000. Percentages and changes are calculated from unrounded numbers. Subtotals do not add up to totals because eligible voters who gave other answers, including those who chose more than one race, are not shown.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2022 American Community Survey (IPUMS). Figures for 2026 are Pew Research Center projections based on Census Bureau estimates.
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


The Hispanic electorate’s growth primarily stems from U.S.-born Hispanics reaching adulthood. Annually, around 1 million U.S.-born Hispanics become adults. The more than 4 million Hispanics who turned 18 between 2022 and 2026 accounted for about 80% of the growth among Hispanic eligible voters during those years. In addition, roughly 1 million Hispanic adults became naturalized citizens in the last four years.

The number of Asian voters also rose sharply between 2022 and 2026, by 2.3 million, to reach 13.7 million. That’s a growth rate of around 20%, making Asian Americans the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group of eligible voters. The increase is about equally due to immigrants becoming naturalized citizens and U.S.-born Asians reaching voting age.

The number of Black voters increased more slowly over the same period, growing by 1.6 million (6%) to 31 million.

By contrast, the number of White eligible voters fell by 2.6 million between 2022 and 2026, to 153 million (down 2%). This is the only racial or ethnic group with a falling number of eligible voters. The decline is largely due to the group’s age structure, as deaths in the White population exceed the number of people turning 18 and being naturalized each year.  

State-level changes in the electorate’s racial makeup since 2006

Twenty years ago, the U.S. electorate was 74% White, 12% Black, 9% Hispanic and 3% Asian. At the time, White Americans made up the majority of all eligible voters in 48 states. They accounted for half of the electorate in New Mexico (50%) and less than half in the District of Columbia (37%) and Hawaii (28%).

As of 2024, a majority of eligible voters are White in 46 states. White eligible voters account for less than half of the electorate in Texas (46%), the District of Columbia (42%), New Mexico (41%), California (40%) and Hawaii (24%). Still, in Texas and California, they are the largest racial or ethnic group. In D.C., they are about on par with the Black eligible voter population, while in New Mexico, they’re roughly on par with the Hispanic eligible voter population. In Hawaii, White eligible voters are the second-largest group after Asians.

(This section spans 2006 through 2024, the most recent year for which state-level data about the electorate’s racial and ethnic makeup is available. Refer to “Key terms” for how we report on racial and ethnic groups.)

The nationwide decline in the White share of the electorate is playing out to varying degrees across the country, with some states experiencing particularly significant shifts.

Between 2006 and 2024, a total of 16 states saw declines of 10 percentage points or more in the share of all eligible voters who are White. In Nevada, the White share of the electorate fell 20 points, the largest drop among all 50 states. California also had a sharp decline in the White share of the electorate, dropping 16 points in that period. 

The District of Columbia is the only place where White voters rose as a share of all eligible voters, increasing 4 percentage points.

As reflected at the national level, Hispanic eligible voters have been the primary drivers of the racial and ethnic diversification of most states’ electorates. Their share increased by 10 percentage points in California and Nevada between 2006 and 2024.


Black eligible voters have their largest shares in the mid-Atlantic and the South

% of eligible voters who are __, by state, 2024

White

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Hispanic

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Black

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Asian

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Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER



Black eligible voters have their largest shares in the mid-Atlantic and the South

% of eligible voters who are __, by state, 2024

Name FIPS White Hispanic Black Asian
Alabama 1 66.9 3.2 25.1 1.0
Alaska 2 62.1 6.5 3.1 4.8
Arizona 4 59.2 25.4 4.3 3.0
Arkansas 5 72.3 5.4 14.0 1.1
California 6 40.1 33.0 6.0 15.4
Colorado 8 70.7 17.5 3.7 2.9
Connecticut 9 67.9 14.3 9.9 3.4
Delaware 10 63.8 7.2 21.1 3.5
District of Columbia 11 41.7 8.0 40.9 4.3
Florida 12 56.9 22.6 13.8 2.7
Georgia 13 53.9 6.7 31.5 3.6
Hawaii 15 23.8 8.6 1.8 37.3
Idaho 16 82.9 9.9 0.5 1.2
Illinois 17 63.6 14.0 13.8 5.2
Indiana 18 80.3 5.5 8.3 1.7
Iowa 19 87.0 4.6 3.1 1.6
Kansas 20 78.1 9.4 5.1 2.2
Kentucky 21 85.0 2.8 6.6 1.2
Louisiana 22 59.4 4.5 30.7 1.4
Maine 23 91.7 1.6 0.9 1.0
Maryland 24 51.8 7.5 30.0 5.8
Massachusetts 25 73.5 9.9 5.7 5.9
Michigan 26 75.8 4.3 12.6 2.5
Minnesota 27 81.1 4.0 6.0 4.2
Mississippi 28 57.9 2.2 35.8 0.9
Missouri 29 80.0 3.8 10.0 1.6
Montana 30 85.5 4.0 0.3 0.6
Nebraska 31 82.3 7.6 3.7 2.0
Nevada 32 51.6 22.2 9.4 9.2
New Hampshire 33 89.2 4.0 1.2 2.0
New Jersey 34 58.0 17.2 12.8 8.4
New Mexico 35 40.8 43.3 1.9 1.5
New York 36 58.6 15.7 13.4 7.8
North Carolina 37 65.7 6.6 20.3 2.5
North Dakota 38 84.8 3.7 2.4 1.0
Ohio 39 79.1 3.6 11.3 1.8
Oklahoma 40 67.6 8.3 6.8 2.0
Oregon 41 76.8 10.6 1.7 4.0
Pennsylvania 42 76.9 6.8 9.7 3.1
Rhode Island 44 74.7 12.5 4.0 3.1
South Carolina 45 66.2 4.7 23.6 1.5
South Dakota 46 84.0 2.8 1.8 1.2
Tennessee 47 75.8 3.9 14.8 1.5
Texas 48 45.9 32.3 13.1 4.9
Utah 49 80.5 10.9 0.9 2.3
Vermont 50 90.7 2.3 0.7 1.6
Virginia 51 63.1 7.5 18.7 6.0
Washington 53 70.0 9.9 3.8 8.3
West Virginia 54 90.6 1.6 3.2 0.5
Wisconsin 55 83.2 5.3 5.2 2.3
Wyoming 56 83.4 9.3 0.8 0.4

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Hispanics do not form a majority in any state, but they are the largest racial or ethnic group in New Mexico’s electorate, where they make up 43% of eligible voters. They represent a quarter or more in California (33%), Texas (32%) and Arizona (25%). Their shares are smallest in Vermont, Mississippi, Maine and West Virginia, accounting for 2% of the electorate in each of those states.


Hawaii has the largest share of Asian eligible voters

% of eligible voters who are __, 2024

White

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Hispanic

Chart

Black

Chart

Asian

Chart

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. States shown have the five largest shares of each group.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER



Hawaii has the largest share of Asian eligible voters

% of eligible voters who are __, 2024

Top states for White eligible voters % of EVs who are White
Maine 92
Vermont 91
West Virginia 91
New Hampshire 89
Iowa 87
Top states for Hispanic eligible voters % of EVs who are Hispanic
New Mexico 43
California 33
Texas 32
Arizona 25
Florida 23
Top states for Black eligible voters % of EVs who are Black
District of Columbia 41
Mississippi 36
Georgia 31
Louisiana 31
Maryland 30
Top states for Asian eligible voters % of EVs who are Asian
Hawaii 37
California 15
Nevada 9
New Jersey 8
Washington 8

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. States shown have the five largest shares of each group.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Black eligible voters do not make up the largest racial or ethnic share of any state’s electorate, but they represent three-in-ten or more in the District of Columbia (41%), Mississippi (36%), Georgia (31%), Louisiana (31%) and Maryland (30%). They are 1% or less of the electorate in New Hampshire, Maine, Utah, Wyoming, Vermont, Idaho and Montana.

Asian eligible voters make up 37% of Hawaii’s electorate – that state’s biggest racial or ethnic share, and the highest Asian share of any state. California comes second, with 15%. In all other places, their share is under 10%, including 40 states and D.C. where they represent less than 5% of the electorate.


California has the most White, Hispanic and Asian eligible voters

Numbers of eligible voters in top states, 2024, in millions

White

Chart

Hispanic

Chart

Black

Chart

Asian

Chart

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. States shown are the five largest for each group.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER



California has the most White, Hispanic and Asian eligible voters

Numbers of eligible voters in top states, 2024, in millions

Top states for White eligible voters White EVs, in millions
California 10.6
Florida 9.5
Texas 9.5
New York 8.3
Pennsylvania 7.7
Top states for Hispanic eligible voters Hispanic EVs, in millions
California 8.7
Texas 6.7
Florida 3.8
New York 2.2
Arizona 1.4
Top states for Black eligible voters Black EVs, in millions
Texas 2.7
Georgia 2.5
Florida 2.3
New York 1.9
North Carolina 1.7
Top states for Asian eligible voters Asian EVs, in millions
California 4.1
New York 1.1
Texas 1.0
New Jersey 0.6
Washington 0.5

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. States shown are the five largest for each group.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Why the electorate’s racial and ethnic makeup does not mirror the overall U.S. population

Population growth does not immediately or automatically translate into growth of the electorate, as only U.S. citizens ages 18 and older are eligible to vote. As a result, groups can make up different shares of the electorate than they do of the nation’s population.

A large majority of the White population is eligible to vote (81%), followed by smaller shares of the Black (74%), Asian (60%) and Hispanic (52%) populations.


White Americans have the highest share eligible to vote

% in each group who are eligible voters, by race and ethnicity, 2024

Chart

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).

PEW RESEARCH CENTER



White Americans have the highest share eligible to vote

% in each group who are eligible voters, by race and ethnicity, 2024

2024
White 81
Hispanic 52
Black 74
Asian 60

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Each of these percentages grew between 2006 and 2024, with the Hispanic population’s figure increasing the most (12 percentage points), followed by Asian (9 points), Black (6 points) and White Americans (4 points).

(The latest figures in this section are for 2024, the most recent year for which detailed population data is available. Refer to “Key terms” for how we report on racial and ethnic groups.)

The share of each population eligible to vote depends largely on two factors – the group’s age distribution and citizenship rate.

  • Very small shares of White (1%) and Black Americans (4%) are noncitizens. Hispanics (21%) and Asians (25%) have much larger shares of noncitizens.
  • Relatively small shares of White and Asian Americans are under 18 (18% each). Hispanic and Black Americans have larger shares of people in that age group (29% and 23%, respectively).

Demographic characteristics of eligible voters by race and ethnicity

Here’s a closer look at the demographic characteristics of eligible voters in each racial and ethnic group.


Demographic profile of U.S. eligible voters in 2024

% of eligible voters, by race and ethnicity, 2024

All U.S. eligible voters White Hispanic Black Asian
Gender
Men 49% 49% 49% 47% 47%
Women 51 51 51 53 53
Nativity
U.S. born 90 97 77 91 35
Naturalized 10  3 23  9 65
Educational attainment
Less than high school diploma  8  6 17 11 10
High school diploma 27 26 31 32 15
Some college 30 29 31 32 22
Bachelor’s degree 22 24 15 15 32
Postgraduate degree 13 15  7 10 22
Age
18-29 20 17 30 22 19
30-49 32 30 36 36 36
50-64 23 24 20 23 24
65+ 24 28 14 19 21
Median age (years)* 48 52 39 45 47

* Median age is only for U.S. citizens who are 18 or older.
Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, Black and Asian eligible voters are those who report only being one race and are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Eligible voters of other races and ethnicities, including those who chose more than one race, are included in the “All U.S. eligible voters” column but are not shown separately.

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
“The U.S. Electorate’s Changing Racial and Ethnic Makeup”

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Age

On average, White eligible voters are the oldest group, with a median age of 52. Hispanic eligible voters are the youngest, with a median age of 39. Similarly, White eligible voters include the largest share of those ages 65 and older (28%), which is double the share of Hispanic eligible voters in the same age group (14%).

In contrast, Hispanic eligible voters have the largest share of adults under age 30 (30%), followed by Black (22%), Asian (19%) and White (17%) eligible voters.

Nativity

The vast majority of White eligible voters (97%) and Black eligible voters (91%) are U.S. born. A majority of Hispanic eligible voters also are U.S. born (77%). In contrast, most Asian eligible voters are naturalized citizens, while 35% are U.S. born.

Education

Compared with White and Asian eligible voters, Hispanic and Black eligible voters have lower levels of educational attainment. Similar shares of Hispanic (47%) and Black eligible voters (43%) have a high school diploma or less education – including 17% of Hispanic eligible voters who have not graduated from high school. White and Asian eligible voters have larger shares of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher (38% and 54%, respectively), including 22% of Asian eligible voters who have a postgraduate degree.

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Reem Nadeem

Reem Nadeem

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