PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The worldnewsintel’s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
The Fabelmans (Universal)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount)
Tár (Focus)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Women Talking (UAR)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Babylon (Paramount)
The Woman King (Sony)
Major Threats
She Said (Universal)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)
RRR (Variance)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
The Whale (A24)
Aftersun (A24)
Possibilities
Till (UAR)
Armageddon Time (Focus)
Living (Sony Classics)
Emancipation (Apple)
Nope (Universal)
Causeway (Apple)
A Man Called Otto (Sony)
Still to See or Under Embargo
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
Todd Field (Tár)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast
Major Threats
Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
S. S. Rajamouli (R.R.R.)
Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Maria Schrader (She Said)
Possibilities
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
James Gray (Armageddon Time)
Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
Sam Mendes (Empire of Light)
Antoine Fuqua (Emancipation)
Jordan Peele (Nope) — podcast
Luca Guadagnino (Bones and All)
Still to See or Under Embargo
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Major Threats
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast
Bill Nighy (Living)
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Possibilities
Song Kang-ho (Broker)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) — podcast 1 and 2
Jonathan Majors (Devotion)
Banks Repeta (Armageddon Time)
Mark Wahlberg (Father Stu)
Still to See or Under Embargo
Sam Worthington (Avatar: The Way of Water)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Major Threats
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Possibilities
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Léa Seydoux (One Fine Morning)
Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)
Zar Amir Ebrahimi (Holy Spider)
Mia Goth (Pearl)
Still to See or Under Embargo
Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Major Threats
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and 2
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
David Lynch (The Fabelmans)
Possibilities
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness)
Bokeem Woodbine (The Inspection)
Mark Rylance (Bones and All)
Ben Foster (Emancipation)
Andre Braugher (She Said)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Major Threats
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Claire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) — podcast
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Possibilities
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
Laura Dern (The Son)
Frankie Corio (Aftersun)
Charmaine Bingwa (Emancipation)
Jennifer Ehle (She Said)
Samantha Morton (She Said)
Patricia Clarkson (She Said) — podcast
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Major Threats
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
The Son (Christopher Hampton)
Possibilities
The Wonder (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Bones and All (David Kajganich)
Still to See or Under Embargo
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
Tár (Todd Field)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
Major Threats
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Armageddon Time (James Gray)
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeong)
Possibilities
Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Empire of Light (Sam Mendes)
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)
Emancipation (William N. Collage)
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
Broker (Hirokazu Koreeda)
R.R.R. (S. S. Rajamouli)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Close (Belgium)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Corsage (Austria)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Major Threats
Holy Spider (Denmark)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
EO (Poland)
Saint Omer (France)
Bardo (Mexico)
Still to See or Under Embargo
Alcarràs (Spain)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
Eternal Spring (Canada)
Girl Picture (Finland)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Klondike (Ukraine)
Narcosis (Netherlands)
Nostalgia (Italy)
Plan 75 (Japan)
War Sailor (Norway)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
All That Breathes (HBO)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Rest of Shortlist
Last Flight Home (MTV)
Descendant (Netflix)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)
Bad Axe (IFC)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Sr. (Netflix)
The Return of Tanya Tucker (Sony Classics)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff/CNN)
Turn Every Page (Sony Classics)
Possibilities
The Janes (HBO)
Freedom on Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Classics)
Icarus: The Aftermath (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In Her Hands (Netflix)
Civil (Netflix)
Bitterbrush (Magnolia)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Classics)
Still to See or Under Embargo
2nd Chance (Showtime)
Aftershock (Hulu)
Art & Krimes (MTV)
Breaking Bread (Cohen Media Group)
The Corridors of Power (Showtime)
Eternal Spring (self-distributing)
The Exiles (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
I Didn’t See You There (POV)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney)
Is That Black Enough for You?!? (Netflix)
Louis Armstrong’s Black and Blues (Apple)
Mickey: The Story of a Mouse (Disney)
Mija (Disney)
Nelly & Nadine (Wolf)
Nothing Compares (Showtime)
The Pez Outlaw (Gravitas)
The Princess (HBO)
Punch 9 for Harold Washington (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia)
Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me (Apple)
Sidney (Apple)
The Voice of Dust and Ash (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Volcano: Rescue From Whakaari (Netflix)
We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura (Cinedigm)
Wildcat (Amazon)
The Will to See (Cohen Media Group)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani & Rahul Sipligunj
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Rihanna
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski
Major Threats (rest of shortlist)
“Vegas” (Elvis) — Doja Cat
“Ready As I’ll Never Be” (The Return of Tanya Tucker) — Brandi Carlile & Tanya Tucker
“Love Is Not Love” (Bros) — Billy Eichner & Marc Shaiman
“Stand Up” (Till) — D’Mile & Jazmine Sullivan
“Nobody Like U” (Turning Red) — Billie Eilish & Finneas
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton & Jahaan Akil Sweet
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home” (Bones and All) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro & Roeban Katz
“Do A Little Good” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
Possibilities
“My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Selena Gomez
“Not Alone” (Devotion) — Joe Jonas
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“I Ain’t Worried” (Top Gun: Maverick) — One Republic
“Heartbeat” (Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile) — Shawn Mendes
“At the Automat” (The Automat) — Mel Brooks
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren
“On My Way” (Marry Me) — Ivy Adara, Leroy Clampitt & Michael Pollack
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph
“A Tree of Life” (A Tree of Life: The Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting) — Kate Diaz & Idina Menzel
“A Sky Like I’ve Never Seen” (Wildcat) — Robin Pecknold
“Lift Your Wings” (My Father’s Dragon) — Frank Danna, Jeff Danna, Mychael Danna, Meg LeFauve & Nora Twomey
“We Are Art” (We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura) — Annalaura di Luggo & Paky Di Maio
“Brasília Bella” (18 1/2) — Luis Guerra, Dan Mirvish & Caro Pierotto
