66% of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem in the country
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand Americans’ views of the 2024 presidential election campaign.
For this analysis, we surveyed 5,110 adults – including 4,025 registered voters – from Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, 2024. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), a group of people recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses who have agreed to take surveys regularly. This kind of recruitment gives nearly all U.S. adults a chance of selection. Surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other factors. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.
Here are the questions used for this report, the topline and the survey methodology.
The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump continues to be deadlocked among all registered voters. And with less than a month until the election, a growing share of voters (86%) say it’s not yet clear who will win on Nov. 5.
Looking beyond Election Day, Harris and Trump supporters are deeply divided over the importance of their candidate conceding defeat if they lose.
Nearly twice as many Harris supporters (61%) as Trump supporters (32%) say, if their candidate loses next month, it is very important for them to acknowledge the opposing candidate as the legitimate president.
There also is a sizable gap in expectations for how each candidate will handle a possible election defeat:
- 72% of voters overall say if Harris loses – that is, if Trump wins enough votes cast by eligible voters in enough states – she will accept the results and acknowledge Trump’s victory. Virtually all Harris supporters (95%) and about half of Trump supporters (48%) expect Harris to concede.
- Just 24% say if Trump loses he will concede, while 74% say he will not. About half of Trump supporters (46%) and only 4% of Harris supporters expect Trump to acknowledge Harris as the election winner.
The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted among 5,110 adults (including 4,025 registered voters) from Sept. 30 to Oct 6, 2024, finds that the race among all registered voters (not all of whom will vote) is little changed since early September, before the presidential and vice presidential debates held over the last month: 48% favor Harris or lean toward supporting her, while 47% back Trump or lean toward supporting him. Another 5% of voters support or lean toward a third-party candidate.
Jump to Chapter 1 for more on voters’ preferences.
In further evidence of the tightness of the presidential contest, there are virtually no meaningful differences in the shares of Harris and Trump supporters who say they are certain to back their own candidate, are extremely motivated to vote and that it “really matters” who wins the election.
These attitudes are closely associated with voting. However, an analysis of voters who expressed these views prior to the 2020 election and their actual turnout finds that small shares of voters who said they had thought a lot about the candidates, were highly motivated to vote or saw high stakes in the election did not end up voting, while some voters who did not express these views did vote.
Views of Harris and Trump as president and prospects for change in the country
Voters’ expectations for a Harris or Trump presidency are deeply polarized. This also is the case for opinions about whether each candidate would change the country, for better or worse.
More voters express negative than positive views of both candidates as possible presidents.
While 36% say Harris would be a good or great president, 18% say she would be average and 46% say she would be poor or terrible.
More voters also think Trump would be a poor or terrible president (48%) than a good or great one (41%). Fewer expect Trump to be an average president (11%) than say that about Harris (18%).
Compared with Harris, Trump is viewed more widely both as a great and a terrible potential president: 22% of voters say he would be a great president while 14% say this about Harris. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say Trump would be a terrible president, while fewer (32%) view Harris that negatively.
Trump would change the way things work in Washington (89%) than say that about Harris (70%). However, more voters say both candidates would change Washington for the worse than for the better. Nearly half of voters (48%) say Trump would change Washington for the worse, while 41% say he would bring positive change to the nation’s capital and just 10% say he would not bring much change. By 41% to 29%, more voters say Harris would make things worse than better, while 30% say she would not change things much.
Jump to Chapter 2 for more on expectations of potential Harris and Trump presidencies.
Other findings: Views of the campaign, concerns over political violence, clearness of candidates’ issues positions, an absence of shared facts
Views of the 2024 campaign are mostly negative. Just 19% of voters say the campaign makes them feel proud of the country. That actually is higher than the share who said this in July (12%), with much of the change coming among Harris supporters. Majorities also say the campaign is too negative (71%) and not focused on important policy debates (62%). Still, more than twice as many voters describe the campaign as interesting (68%) than dull (30%).
Trump voters are more likely than Harris voters to say the threat of violence against politicians is a major problem. Overall, 66% of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem, while 30% say it is a minor problem. Just 4% think it is not a problem. While majorities of both candidates’ supporters view the threat of political violence as a major problem, Trump supporters (74%) are more likely than Harris supporters (60%) to express this view.
Harris’ positions on several issues, including immigration and the economy, are seen as less clear than Trump’s. Among voters overall, far more say Trump has clearly explained his plans and policies for addressing illegal immigration (70%) than say that about Harris (37%). A similar pattern is evident on other issues, including the economy and foreign policy. However, voters are more likely to say Harris has clearly explained her positions on abortion and health care than say that about Trump.
More voters say Harris than Trump would work with the opposing party. A majority of voters (55%) say that if Harris is elected, it is very or somewhat likely she will work with Republicans on important issues. But just 20% see this as very likely. Even fewer voters say it is very (9%) or somewhat likely (27%) Trump will work with Democrats on key issues if he is elected.
Most continue to see disagreements on “basic facts.” For the third consecutive election, large majorities of voters say that supporters of the two presidential candidates not only disagree about plans and policies, but also about basic facts. More than eight-in-ten voters (86%) say Harris and Trump supporters differ on basic facts, as well as on policies. Just 13% say they can agree on facts even though they disagree about policies.
