With less than a month to go until Election Day, voters continue to express mostly negative opinions about the 2024 presidential campaign.
Reflecting the closeness of the presidential race, the share of voters who think it is clear which candidate will win – which was already low in July – has edged lower.
Harris and Trump supporters differ in their views of the importance of their candidate conceding if they lose, and they have sharply different expectations for how their candidate might handle a defeat.
Following two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump, there are widespread concerns about political violence. A majority of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem in the country.
Campaign widely seen as too negative – but few think it’s dull
Voters continue to describe the presidential campaign so far in mostly negative terms:
- 71% say that the campaign is too negative. Only 27% say it is not too negative.
- 62% say the campaign is not focused on important policy debates, while 37% say it is.
- Just 19% say that the campaign makes them feel proud of the country, while 79% say it does not make them feel proud.
- 68% of voters say the campaign is interesting, while 30% say it is dull.
While voters continue to view the campaign negatively across most dimensions, an increasing share say it is focused on important policy debates. Nearly four-in-ten (37%) say it is focused on policy debates, up from 23% in July. Over the same period, the share of voters who say the campaign makes them feel proud of the country also has risen, from 12% to 19%.
Views among Harris and Trump supporters
For the most part, Harris and Trump supporters express similar views of the 2024 campaign. Majorities of both candidates’ supporters say it is too negative and comparable shares say it is focused on important policy debates. Similar shares of Harris and Trump supporters (20% each) say it makes them feel proud of the country.
While majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters find the campaign interesting, Harris supporters are more likely to say this (74% vs. 65%).
Since July, the increase in the shares of voters who say the campaign is focused on important policy debates and makes them feel proud has come largely among Harris supporters. Currently, 38% of Harris supporters say it is focused on policy. In July, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee, just 18% of his supporters said this.
And while just 20% of Harris supporters say the campaign makes them feel proud of the country, that is nearly double the share of Biden supporters who said this in July (11%).
Trump supporters’ views on some of these questions have shown less change. But over this period, there has been a 10 percentage point increase in the share of Trump supporters who say the campaign is too negative (from 61% to 71%).
Is it clear who will win the presidential election?
With a little less than a month before the 2024 election, just 14% of voters say that it is already clear who is going to win. An overwhelming 86% say it is not yet clear who is going to win.
The share who says it is already clear who is going to win is down slightly from September, when 20% said it was already clear who was going to win.
As was the case in September, Trump supporters (18%) are somewhat more likely than Harris supporters (10%) to say it is already clear who is going to win.
Voters’ emotions if Harris or Trump won
Voters overall have largely similar feelings about a possible Trump or Harris win in November.
Roughly three-in-ten say they would feel relieved if Trump (33%) or Harris (31%) won in November, while less than two-in-ten say they would feel excited if Trump or Harris won (15% and 17%, respectively).
Voters are slightly more likely to say they would feel angry with a possible Trump victory compared with a Harris one (25% vs. 21%, respectively), while they are slightly more likely to say they would feel disappointed with a Harris victory than a Trump one (30% vs. 26%).
Among Harris supporters
Roughly six-in-ten Harris supporters (62%) say they would feel relieved if Harris won in November, while about a third (35%) say they would feel excited.
Harris supporters are more likely to say they would feel excited (35%) about the prospect of a Democratic victory than Clinton (24%) or Biden (23%) supporters were at similar points in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
About half of Harris supporters (52%) say they would feel angry if Trump won in November, while 46% say they’d be disappointed. These feelings are nearly identical to the shares of Biden supporters who said the same four years ago (54% angry, 44% disappointed).
Among Trump supporters
A large majority of Trump supporters say they would feel relieved (65%) or excited (31%) if their preferred candidate won. This is similar to the shares who said they would feel relieved (64%) or excited (31%) in 2020.
However, Trump supporters are more likely to say they would feel angry with a Harris victory in November than they were at a similar point in 2020 about a Biden victory (42% today, 31% in 2020).
How important is it for Harris, Trump to concede if they lose
When asked how important it is for each candidate to concede the election if they lose, majorities of registered voters say it is very or somewhat important for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the opposing candidate as the legitimate president of the country.
However, Trump supporters are less likely than Harris supporters to say it is important that the losing candidate concede – particularly if Trump is the losing candidate.
Majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters say it is important for the other candidate to concede if they lose the election:
- 87% of Harris supporters say it is at least somewhat important for Trump to concede if he were to lose the election, including 71% who say this is very important.
- A smaller majority of Trump supporters (77%) say it is at least somewhat important for Harris to concede if she loses the election, with 55% saying it is very important.
Harris supporters are much more likely than Trump supporters to say it is important for their candidate to concede if they lose the election:
- An overwhelming majority of Harris supporters (86%) say it’s at least somewhat important for Harris to concede if she loses the election, with a 61% majority saying this is very important.
- A smaller majority of Trump supporters (59%) say it is important for Trump to concede if he loses the election, including only 32% who say this is very important.
While both candidates’ supporters place more importance on the opposing candidate conceding if their candidate wins than on their candidate conceding if the opposing candidate wins, the gap in these views is much more pronounced among Trump supporters:
- 55% of Trump supporters say it would be very important for Harris to concede, while 32% say it’d be very important for Trump to concede.
- By contrast, 71% of Harris supporters say it would be very important for Trump to concede, while 61% say it’d be very important for Harris to concede.
Will Harris, Trump concede if they lose?
Nearly three-quarters of registered voters (72%) say they think that Harris will accept the results and publicly acknowledge Trump as the legitimate president if he wins the election. About a quarter (27%) say she will not do this if she loses the election.
But about three-quarters of voters (74%) say that Trump will not accept the results and publicly acknowledge Harris if she wins the election, while 24% say he will accept the outcome if he loses the election.
Nearly all Harris supporters (95%) expect that she will concede if she loses the election. But very few Harris supporters – just 4% – think that Trump will concede if he loses the election.
By contrast, about half of Trump supporters (48%) think Harris will concede and publicly acknowledge Trump as the winner if she loses, while 51% don’t expect her to concede. Trump supporters’ expectations of Trump are similar: 46% think he will concede if he loses the election, while 50% think he will not.
Most voters say political violence is a major problem
Roughly two-thirds of registered voters (66%) say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem. Another 30% say this is a minor problem and just 4% say it’s not a problem.
And while majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters say the threat of violence against political leaders is a major problem, Trump supporters are more likely to say this (74% vs. 60%).
As in 2016 and 2020, most voters say candidate supporters disagree over ‘basic facts’
More than eight-in-ten voters (86%) say that when it comes to important issues facing the country, supporters of Trump and Harris not only disagree on plans and policies, but also on basic facts.
Only 13% say they can agree on basic facts, even if they disagree often over plans and policies.
Nearly identical shares of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters (85%) and Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (86%) say that Trump and Harris supporters can’t agree on basic facts, while 13% each say they can agree on basic facts.
Views on partisan agreement of basic facts are largely unchanged over the last three presidential elections.
