The French public’s allegiance to the idea of Europe remains theoretically strong, but a passion for or a real understanding of the EU is weak — which is why Le Pen’s de facto policy of dismantling the bloc from the inside is poorly understood.
Le Pen’s “normalization” has been based on the successful deception that she’s now a moderate who wants to shift economic power and advantage toward ordinary citizens. But while her economic program continues to be interventionist and left wing, her social, European and international policies remain as ultra-nationalist as ever. And while a French parliament hostile to Le Pen could block many of her proposals, it’s unlikely it would be able to block all of them.
If elected, a Le Pen presidency would at best lead to five years of drift and confusion at home and in the EU capital. At worst, it could remove a nuclear power, G7 member and permanent member of the U.N. Security Council from the Western alliance, starting a process that could break the EU apart — at least in its current form.
For example, while Le Pen may have distanced herself from Putin since he invaded Ukraine, but she still says that France should reduce its “dependency” on Berlin and Washington. And though she says she’d remain in NATO, she’d fundamentally undermine Ukraine’s ability to ever join the alliance — as well as block the country from becoming an EU member.
Under Macron, France hasn’t distinguished itself in its arms supplies to Kyiv — its economic aid has been more generous. But if the war continues for another three years, under Le Pen, both might end.
Moreover, almost all of Le Pen’s economic program, and much of her social and migration policy, depends on breaking EU laws — something she doesn’t openly recognize, instead counting on the fact that many in France don’t know how the EU works.
