Boeing has forecast that China’s commercial
airplane fleet will more than double over the next 20 years.
According to its 2022 Commercial Market Outlook
(CMO) for China, Boeing predicts that demand for air travel and
air freight will continue to trend upwards through 2041, with the
country’s commercial fleet growing from around 3,900 airplanes to
more than 9,600 through 2041.
The CMO states that China will require 8,485 new airplanes valued at
$1.5 trillion to serve passengers and trade.
That significant number of aircraft represents
more than a fifth of global airplane deliveries over the next two
decades, as Chinese carriers look to replace older airplanes with
more fuel-efficient models.
Notably, there will be continued growth in the
freighter market, with China’s freighter fleet more than
quadrupling in size to more than 800 airplanes through 2041.
“We have full confidence that China’s commercial
aviation market will continue to prosper, despite recent economic
headwinds, as Boeing celebrates its 50th anniversary in the
country,” said Peter Gao, Boeing vice president, Commercial Sales
and Marketing, Greater China. “China’s economic fundamentals will
continue to fuel the significant demand for both its passenger and
cargo fleets.”
The 2022 China CMO includes the following projections
through 2041:
– Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 4.9%
annually;
– 1,570 widebody airplanes and 6,370 single-aisle
airplanes will be needed to support a growing network of
international and domestic routes;
– Demand for commercial services to support the
rapid and healthy growth of the fleet will be worth $545 billion;
– Freighter segment will see 205 deliveries to
meet the requirements of continued e-commerce growth, and a strong
industrial supply chain; and
– The country will also require 412,000 new
aviation personnel, including 126,000 pilots, 124,000 technicians
and 162,000 cabin crew members in the next 20 years.
Regional Jets: 340
Single Aisle: 6,370
Widebody: 1,570
Freighters: 205
Total: 8,485
2022 marks the 50th year of Boeing’s footprint in
China. In 1972, China ordered the first ten 707 jets to modernize
its commercial fleet and expand its international network. Today,
more than 2,000 Boeing airplanes have been delivered to Chinese
operators in the past five decades.
