A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down 17.8%), 15.6% Greens (up 3.8%) and 5.6% Australian Families (new). SA doesn’t allow pre-poll and postal votes to be counted on election night, so the count is only up to 42% of enrolled voters. ABC election analyst Antony Green expects the large number of pre-poll and postal votes to reduce…
Author: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6. Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60. Robert F. Kennedy Jr withdrew from the presidential contest in swing states on Friday US time and endorsed Trump. Silver…