Like Harris, she’s only 37 and gained rapid entry to the Cabinet table, first as junior Europe minister at the height of the Brexit battles, then as justice minister. She’s already made history by becoming the first Cabinet minister to gain rights to maternity leave without losing her post in the process.
But her ministerial performance since has raised doubt she commands enough internal support to seek the leadership now. She weathered a confidence vote following her shaky oversight of the riots that tore through central Dublin last November.
Paschal Donohoe
If ever Fine Gael needed a credible leadership figure to take over, Donohoe would be that man. But that’s also the problem, because Donohoe’s ambitions have already clearly grown far beyond his native Dublin.
As finance minister, the ultra-diplomatic Donohoe so impressed his European counterparts in Brussels that they elected him leader of their umbrella group for eurozone ministers. So well did he handle this EU-level consensus-building post that, when he was obliged to step away from his Irish finance portfolio in a mandatory coalition reshuffle, his European counterparts bent the rules to let him stay in the Eurogroup chair.
In recent months Donohoe has chosen not to quash speculation that he’d love a new international role in Brussels — or perhaps at the International Monetary Fund, where he was only recently ruled out as a candidate to be its next managing director. With one eye on his own exit from domestic politics, it doesn’t make obvious sense for Donohoe to take the Fine Gael reins now — unless the party demands its senior statesman take charge.
The bookies’ verdict
It’s always useful in Ireland, when trying to predict the future, to see what the bookies have to say. Quick off the mark, Paddy Power lists Harris as the prohibitive favorite, with Coveney and Donohoe far behind in the race for second place, and McEntee the dark horse.
