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After years of weathering crises and pushing ambitious climate legislation, von der Leyen is gunning for a second five-year term steering the European Union’s powerful executive arm, with a new focus on security, industry and making climate ambitions more palatable to big business.

But to get there she will need the approval of a majority of MEPs in the European Parliament, which is predicted to shift to the right.

In 2024, the right-wing polling surge seems bigger and bolder, with one forecast predicting the nationalist right and far right could pick up nearly a quarter of the seats in the European Parliament in June.

To get Parliament’s backing — which she only managed narrowly in 2019 — it is likely that von der Leyen will either have to secure votes from the Greens, who are not enthusiastic about her ongoing bonfire of environmental bills, or from the ECR.

The parties that von der Leyen will work with are “pro-European, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian, clearly supporters of our democratic values,” she said.

`When asked about a possible coalition between her center-right European People’s Party and the ECR, von der Leyen evaded a “yes” or “no” answer again.

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