Tory conference is a beauty pageant for leadership hopefuls – POLITICO

MANCHESTER, England — Britain’s most ambitious Conservative politicians are on a mission to charm the party’s grassroots this week. Just don’t call it a leadership bid.

As the ruling Tories gather in Manchester for their annual party conference, projecting a united pre-election message is not the only item on the agenda. 

With opinion polls still suggesting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could suffer a shattering defeat at the next general election, the question of who might take his place will be privately occupying some of his more aspiring colleagues.

Party conference has been a litmus test in the past of grassroots support for wannabe leaders — and with a general election expected next spring or next fall, this could be the last before voters deliver their verdict on Sunak.

POLITICO spoke to Conservative advisers and ministers past and present, some of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics, in a bid to take the temperature.

Here we go again

The Tories have been here before. Boris Johnson drew huge crowds for a speech on the conference fringes in 2018 at the height of the party’s Brexit wars. Less than a year later, he had replaced Theresa May as prime minister.

“You’re going to have three or four people basically setting out leadership stalls at conference,” one former minister groaned.

An adviser to a serving Cabinet minister admitted they had been busy inserting lines into their boss’ party conference speech in a bid to burnish their right-wing credentials.

But much of the action is likely to be happening below the radar. Party conference is an “important moment” for “in the margins meetings” to gauge the support of influential people such as newspaper editors, one former adviser to a previous Tory leadership candidate said.

Making your ambition too apparent is fraught with risk, however, the same person warned. “You have to be careful not to draw too much attention to yourself as it becomes obvious you want a shot at the top.”

“This would be a really stupid moment to do it because you don’t know the lie of the land yet. Rishi is still prime minister, and can make life very difficult, and even if he doesn’t, there are enough people in No. 10 that can get very bitter and very petty,” a second former adviser to a previous Conservative leadership candidate said.

A Conservative MP loyal to Sunak made clear they would also be unimpressed with any perceived leadership maneuverings. “It’s always nice for the backing singers to have a little chance to shine during the show,” they said. “But they have to remember — they’re the backing singers.”

Leadership hopefuls may have to wait a bit longer for their moment in the spotlight, with Sunak reportedly telling friends he has not ruled out staying on as caretaker even if the Tories lose the next election.

Charming the right

It is a rare MP who openly admits to harboring leadership ambitions — but accepting a party conference invitation can often set tongues wagging.  

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ runaway success in the 2022 Conservative leadership contest, after carefully courting the free-market right of her party, has put the pitch for that caucus into the spotlight, even after Truss’ chaotic fall from grace.

On Sunday, Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who stood for leader last year, was the star attraction at a joint Institute for Economic Affairs and Taxpayer Alliance drinks — two of the think tanks Truss was most closely associated with.

Allies of Badenoch have repeatedly dismissed reports she is laying the groundwork for another tilt at the top job, but speculation about her future will not be damped down by a Sunday Times interview in which she hits right-wing talking points such as the cost of net zero and the prospect of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.

Meanwhile, outside the secure zone, Home Secretary Priti Patel, who has flirted with the idea of running in the past, was headliner at the Conservative Democratic Organisation’s glitzy black tie dinner in central Manchester, also on Sunday night. The group’s president, Conservative donor Peter Cruddas, has been scathing of Sunak’s leadership and has been campaigning to give grassroots members more power.

Current Home Secretary Suella Braverman, fresh from a trip to Washington where she delivered a speech calling on world leaders to rip up the 70-year-old U.N. Refugee Convention and introduce a migration regime “fit for our modern age,” will on Tuesday be the star attraction at the Common Sense Group, and Blue Collar Conservatives reception, hosted by the Daily Express newspaper. The group counts a number of the party’s most vocal right-wing MPs among its number.

Former Brexit negotiator David Frost, currently a Conservative peer vying to become an elected MP, has a packed conference schedule, and will be appearing at events hosted by the biggest right-leaning think tanks including the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA), the Legatum Institute, the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) and Policy Exchange, where he is a senior fellow.

Taking the center

If a leadership contest does roll around after the general election, the picture in the party may look very different, veteran Conservatives caution.

With such poor poll ratings, “large numbers of MPs who might think that they either wanted to be a candidate, or [are] backing a certain horse, will have to concentrate on getting themselves re-elected first,” says Tory peer and polling expert Robert Hayward.

“If the general election throws up the fact that centrist Tory [voters] all turned on you in their droves then courting the IEA looks pretty stupid,” the second adviser quoted above added.

As leader of the House of Commons, a relatively obscure ministerial role, Penny Mordaunt will not get star billing on the main stage. But she draws a dedicated centrist-Tory fanbase wherever she goes. This year she will be speaking at a late night event with the “Next Gen Tories” in the Midland Hotel.

Mordaunt ran in both of last year’s Tory leadership contests, earning support from the center of the party. But she is among the potential leadership contenders facing a threat to her own place in the House of Commons if the Conservatives do not jump ahead in the polls. Her Portsmouth North seat — unchanged in a review of Britain’s constituency boundaries — has a healthy 15,780 majority but was held by Labour under Tony Blair.

She has not given up her leadership hopes yet, buoyed by her brush with international fame at King Charles’ coronation, according to an aide from her 2022 campaign.

Beyond the front line

With 11 Tory candidates launching leadership bids in 2022 alone, expectations are high that it could be another crowded field when the time comes to replace Sunak. A second former minister predicted there could be as many as 20 people who now think they have what it takes.

A flurry of social media posts by ex-Justice Secretary Brandon Lewis raised eyebrows among colleagues, though the second former minister was not completely dismissive, saying of Lewis: “He’s not tainted by everything that’s come before.”

Lewis, a former housing minister who has been a champion of more housebuilding, is speaking at three fringe events about housing and Britain’s restrictive green belt planning rules.

Even with a wide field, some Conservative colleagues predict they’ll be left cold by what’s on offer from a party that’s cycled through five prime ministers in eight years.

“There are no big beasts any more, like Callaghan, Heseltine, Geoffrey Howe,” a serving minister lamented. “Thatcher was in since the 1950s and now you have people who’ve just arrived saying within two minutes, ‘I could be leader.’”