LONDON — The Scottish National Party is set to lose more than half of its current seats at Westminster to a resurgent Scottish Labour, according to new research.
In a fresh blow for the pro-independence party — which has been rocked by the arrests of top figures in connection with a finances probe — YouGov projected that Labour is on track to take 23 seats from the SNP, which currently holds 45 seats in the Westminster House of Commons.
YouGov’s MRP modelling — which uses polling analysis to project the results of individual constituencies — said that if a general election were held tomorrow, the SNP would win 27 seats (down from 48 in the 2019 election); Scottish Labour 24 seats (up from 1); the Scottish Tories 4 seats (down from 6); and the Lib Dems 4 seats (no change). The next U.K. general election is widely expected in 2024.
The majority of Labour’s gains from the SNP are projected to come in Scotland’s central belt, between its largest cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow. In the latter, which has been a pro-independence and SNP stronghold since 2014’s independence referendum, YouGov estimates Labour will win all but one of the SNP’s 7 seats in the city.
Though they would still hold the most seats, such a result would represent the SNP’s worst election performance since 2010. The party has been electorally dominant at both Westminster elections and in Holyrood elections to the Scottish parliament since then, eating into territory Labour once had a tight grip on.
The SNP has been hit by months of negative headlines in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s sudden resignation as Scottish first minister in February, with an ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances dominating the tenure of new leader Humza Yousaf.
In the next Scottish parliament election, slated for 2026, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar hopes his party can challenge the SNP for the chance to form the next Scottish government, which has been SNP-led since 2007.
“Scotland is ready for change and it falls to Scottish Labour to deliver it,” Labour’s only Scottish MP Ian Murray said.
