Rishi Sunak treads fine line on China in foreign policy refresh – POLITICO

LONDON — Britain will seek to break a host of dependencies on China — without completely decoupling from the Asian power, according to a refresh of its sweeping foreign policy plan, which also tries to better shore up the country against Russian aggression.

The U.K. government’s updated Integrated Review of foreign policy and defense, published Monday, stresses that Russia is Britain’s “most pressing national security and foreign policy priority in the short-medium term” in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.

But it doubles down on the U.K.’s recent focus on the Indo-Pacific region, warning that tensions in the region are “increasing and conflict there could have global consequences greater than the conflict in Ukraine.”

It lays out plans to beef up the U.K.’s understanding of China and shield its intellectual property — but insists relations with Beijing are not on a “predetermined course” of hostility.

In the foreword to the strategy, which builds on an earlier 2021 plan, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says China “poses an epoch-defining challenge to the type of international order we want to see, both in terms of security and values.”

But he stops short of defining China as a broad “threat,” despite pressure from some hawks within Sunak’s own Conservative Party for a tougher line on Beijing.

“We will work with our partners to engage with Beijing on issues such as climate change,” Sunak says. “But where there are attempts by the Chinese Communist Party to coerce or create dependencies, we will work closely with others to push back against them.”

The U.K. government closely coordinated its wording on China with allies such as the U.S. and Australia, according to a government adviser, and has sought to keep in lockstep with them.

Expertise push

A sizable part of the strategy is aimed at improving the U.K.’s ability to understand Beijing’s increasing power and military might, and to help companies navigate the risks associated with that and the rise of other hostile states.

The government is doubling its funding for 2024-25 to build Whitehall’s expertise on China. That includes a bid to boost Mandarin language skills among civil servants and diplomats, and an injection of £20 million into the BBC World Service over the next two years to protect its broadcasting in English and other languages and to tackle disinformation.

One of the key measures in the plan is the creation of a new “National Protective Security Authority” within security service MI5 to provide training and advice to British businesses, universities and research organizations. Part the new authority’s mission will be helping such organizations protect their intellectual property.

“Science, technology and academia are as much on the front lines of national security as the U.K.’s critical national infrastructure,” said Security Minister Tom Tugendhat. “We know that hostile actors are trying to steal intellectual property from U.K. institutions in order to harm our country.”

But, while it talks up shielding critical supply chains, the strategy also emphasizes the importance of U.K.-China trade for the British economy. Extending an olive branch to Beijing, it says that Britain “does not accept that China’s relationship with the U.K. or its impact on the international system are set on a predetermined course.”

“Our preference is for better cooperation and understanding, and predictability and stability for global public good,” it states. “But we believe that this will depend on the choices China makes, and will be made harder if trends towards greater authoritarianism and assertiveness overseas continue.”

With this strategy, the U.K. is “clearly signaling” that is seeking to be part of the new partnerships developing in the Indo-Pacific, said Veerle Nouwens, senior research fellow on international security studies at the RUSI think tank.

“It looks as if the Indo-Pacific tilt is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future,” she said. “We’ve seen so much being done in the Indo-Pacific over the past few years since the initial review, that this seems to me like a continuation of policy rather than a radical change.”

The Integrated Review comes alongside a number of sectoral strategies designed to counter risks. The government is promising a strategy on supply chains and imports, a refresh of its approach to critical minerals, and a long-delayed semiconductors strategy is expected to be published later this week.

Building resilience

The strategy also pledges to build up the U.K.’s resilience against states including Russia, after the invasion of Ukraine upended global politics and sparked chaos in energy markets, and it warns of an increased threat from Iran.

It warns that the international security environment is likely to further deteriorate in the coming years, with a greater risk of escalation “than at any time in decades, and an increasing number of advanced weapons systems” being tested or adopted.

The refreshed strategy is accompanied by £5 billion in extra defense funding, which is being allocated to nuclear resilience and capacity building — the U.K. is a key player in a plan to build nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian navy as part of the AUKUS defense pact — as well as refilling Britain’s diminished ammunition stockpiles after providing military aid to Ukraine.

However, that is reportedly below the amount demanded by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, and a real boost to the U.K.’s core defense budget is unlikely to come until the next government-wide spending review.

The strategy reiterates the U.K.’s ambition to spend 2.5 percent of its GDP on defense, but does not set out a deadline for reaching that milestone.

Edward Arnold, a research fellow for European security at RUSI, said Britain’s allies are more concerned about the timescales in which Britain can provide new and more advanced capabilities to NATO, rather than any changes to the language used to describe hostile states. Most of the detail on this will be outlined in an updated defense command paper due to be published by the Ministry of Defense in July.

In a sign of thawing relations with Europe after years of post-Brexit spats, the updated document sets out hopes of building on a recent breakthrough over Northern Ireland trade rules — to “enter a new phase” in U.K.-Europe ties.

“The U.K. is committed to playing a leading role in upholding the stability, security and prosperity of our continent and the Euro-Atlantic as a whole,” it promises. “Our ambition is to build even stronger relationships with our European allies and partners based on values, reciprocity and cooperation across our shared interests. This includes the EU, with which we seek to work closely in areas of mutual benefit, as we have done in response to Ukraine.”