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LONDON — There was always going to be one element of any fresh Brexit deal that Rishi Sunak could not hammer out at the negotiating table: the reaction of his own party.
The U.K. and the EU reached an agreement Monday on an overhaul of trade rules in Northern Ireland after 18 months of talks. This hangover from negotiations over Britain’s exit from the bloc had deadlocked politics in Northern Ireland, with the Democratic Unionist Party refusing to re-enter a power-sharing government there until a dispute over the so-called protocol, agreed between London and Brussels as part of the Brexit divorce, was settled.
The dispute also poisoned Britain’s relationship with the rest of Europe more broadly, provoking distrust and slowing down a raft of smaller decisions left hanging after Brexit was formally “done.” This in turn raised alarm bells in Washington.
Sunak must now hold his breath as MPs get sight of the deal for the first time. The prime minister confirmed Monday there would be a vote on his newly-minted “Windsor framework” in the U.K. parliament, but it is not expected until next week to allow MPs “time and space” to consider the details.
When a breakthrough was first reported last month, one U.K. official involved in the talks said there was “no Champagne moment” for the negotiating team, because they knew any technical agreement would be meaningless without political buy-in. This hard truth ended the premiership of Theresa May as her authority was sapped away by three failed efforts to pass her negotiated Brexit deal in 2018.
Sunak is dealing with different arithmetic to May since the opposition Labour Party has pledged to help him pass any negotiated settlement, but forcing through a deal without the backing of his Conservative Party would leave him politically humiliated.
There are two distinct groups of Tories he needs to win over — the battle-hardened Brexit “Spartans,” especially those who rejected May’s deal three times, and Leave-voting MPs, first elected in 2019, who are fresh to this debate.
And then there’s Boris Johnson. While some in government are optimistic any rebellion will be limited to less than 20 Tory MPs, the verdict of the DUP and any intervention from the former prime minister could tip the balance against Sunak’s administration. One ally said Johnson, who was nowhere to be seen Monday, continued “to study and reflect” on the plan.
Reasons to be cheerful
Sunak insisted at a press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “It’s not about me, it’s not about politicians — it’s about the people of Northern Ireland.”
But there is no doubt that passing the deal through the House of Commons without needing to rely on Labour votes would be a big achievement for the prime minister.
Both he and his deputy, Dominic Raab, hit the phones over the weekend as they tried to get MPs onside, while No. 10 fixers arranged a briefing for Brexit hardliners Monday.
Early noises from influential Euroskeptics were positive. Former Brexit Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg told broadcasters that Sunak had “done very well” and that the deal appeared to be “quite an achievement.”
Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister and former Brexiteer ringleader who had been on resignation watch, said that Sunak had “played a blinder” while former Brexit Secretary David Davis hailed a “spectacular negotiating success.” Another long-serving Brexiteer MP who was briefed on the deal said they were “very impressed,” describing the package as “a massive transformation,” particularly on questions of sovereignty.
Other Tory MPs expressed hope that it could be a unifying moment for the party, so often at war with itself over Brexit and currently languishing in the polls. One former minister who had not backed Sunak for leadership said: “It is time to rally behind the PM and hopefully the ideologues realize that.”
“There’s no interest from the new intake in dying in a ditch on this,” said a Brexiteer MP first elected in 2019. Another commented: “This is how a true Brexit believer delivers.”
While not high on the government’s list of troublemakers, it was also significant that May lent the deal her full support in the House of Commons, hailing “all the work they have done to achieve this negotiated settlement, which will make a huge difference.”
There were also some reasons for No. 10 to be cautiously optimistic about the initial response of the anti-protocol DUP, though the party appears in no rush to deliver its verdict.
Their position on the deal is crucial, both to restart government in Northern Ireland and because Conservative MPs will find it hard to argue the agreement is unsatisfactory if it deals with DUP concerns.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson said Monday significant progress has been secured in a number of areas but stressed that concerns remain, particularly over the reach of EU law. Party officials said their senior leadership would convene at its headquarters in Belfast, possibly on Saturday, to review their legal verdict on the deal — and consider whether this was enough to end the DUP’s obstruction of power-sharing at Stormont.
Central to their discussions will be the so-called “Stormont brake,” which allows the Northern Ireland Assembly to object to a new rule set by the EU, though in doing so makes this veto conditional upon returning to the power-sharing institutions.
One prominent MP said the DUP was under pressure from loyalists to keep a hard line on the protocol.
Risky business
Should Sunak fail to get his deal through parliament, there are plenty of political opponents lining up to point out his mistakes.
In one of only a few unfriendly statements in the House of Commons Monday, Mark Francois, who chairs the backbench group of Brexiteers known as the European Research Group (ERG), asked for assurances that there would be no “nasty surprises” when his group pored through the text. David Jones, deputy chairman of the European Research Group, said its verdict was still firmly “TBC” with plans for the caucus to meet Tuesday.
The same ex-minister quoted above said the delay before the vote “creates the risk they [hardline Brexiteers] will discover things they don’t like.” Should they wish, opponents will have time to lobby Euroskeptics in the Cabinet, such as Baker and Home Secretary Suella Braverman, to break with the prime minister.
Sunak himself is due to address the influential 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers Tuesday.
Some close observers of the talks also question No. 10’s approach to selling the deal. The text was held extremely close by Downing Street, which shot down reports of progress and fiercely guarded against leaks, meaning it was a scramble to sell it when the time came.
A Whitehall official said they “seemed almost paralyzed by the need to get a win” and if the agreement got over the line, it would be “despite rather than because of” their actions.
The announcement that von der Leyen would meet King Charles as part of her visit sparked a backlash from politicians including Rees-Mogg and former DUP leader Arlene Foster, who accused the government of dragging the monarch into politics. Sunak’s spokesman said it was a decision for the palace.
Whether Monday’s deal is a political triumph or the result of a botched negotiation now depends on how many MPs Sunak can win over. As ever with Brexit, it isn’t quite done — though the British prime minister looks to have a decent chance of getting closer.
Dan Bloom, Emilio Casalicchio, Annabelle Dickson, Shawn Pogatchnik and Rosa Prince contributed reporting.
