This chapter examines government restrictions and social hostilities in the world’s 25 most populous countries. Looking separately at these populous countries – which are home to about three-quarters of the world’s population – allows us to see how government restrictions and social hostilities impact a large portion of the world’s population.
While each country has a national score on the Government Restrictions Index (GRI) and Social Hostilities Index (SHI), it is important to note that the restrictions measured on these indexes don’t affect all inhabitants in a country equally. For example, restrictions can often target minority groups more than majority groups.
In 2022, among the 25 most populous countries, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Iran and Nigeria had the highest overall levels of restrictions (meaning, combined government restrictions and social hostilities scores for a country). Japan, South Africa, the United States, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had the lowest overall levels of restrictions among these countries.
Government Restrictions Index (GRI)
China, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia and Russia had the highest levels of government restrictions among the most populous countries, with all five scoring in the “very high” GRI category. Japan, South Africa, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the UK had the lowest levels of government restrictions among this set of countries. Japan and South Africa were in the “low” category on the GRI, while the other three countries were in the “moderate” range.
Social Hostilities Index (SHI)
In 2022, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt and Bangladesh had the highest levels of social hostilities among the 25 most populous countries. All of these countries had “very high” SHI scores except for Bangladesh (which had a “high” score). Meanwhile, China, Japan, the U.S., South Africa and Vietnam had the lowest SHI scores. South Africa and Vietnam were in the “moderate” SHI category, while the other three countries were in the “low” range.
In seven of these 25 countries, the GRI and SHI scores fell into the same exact categories. For example, Egypt had “very high” scores on both the GRI and SHI; Bangladesh had “high” levels of both government restrictions and social hostilities; and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had “moderate” scores on both indexes.
At the same time, a few of the 25 most populous countries had “high” GRI scores but “moderate” or “low” SHI scores. China, for example, had “very high” levels of government restrictions but “low” levels of social hostilities in 2022, as it did the previous year. Vietnam and Turkey had “very high” levels of government restrictions in 2022 (both up from “high” GRI scores in 2021) and “moderate” levels of social hostilities. And Russia had a “very high” GRI score but “moderate” levels of social hostilities in 2022. For more information about how GRI and SHI scores correspond for other countries, refer to this report’s Overview.
How GRI scores changed from 2021 to 2022
Most populous countries had a small change (i.e., of less than 1.0 point) in their GRI scores in 2022. Only the Democratic Republic of the Congo had a modest increase (i.e., of 1.0 to 1.9 points) in its GRI score, which shifted the country from the “low” category to the “moderate” range of the GRI. None of the world’s 25 most populous countries had a large change (i.e., of 2.0 points or more) on the index.
However, even small changes on the index pushed some countries into different categories. For example, the GRI score for the Philippines rose from 2.2 to 2.9, moving it from the “low” to the “moderate” level. The small increase was partly due to reports that the Philippine government sought to arrest more religious people perceived to be threats. For example, in August 2022, authorities issued an arrest warrant for 16 members of the Rural Missionaries of the Philippines for sending funds to the armed wing of the country’s Communist Party. It was unclear whether the charges were legitimate, according to the U.S. State Department, which reported that the government engaged in a practice – known as “red-tagging” – of publicly associating critics of the government with insurgent, terrorist or separatist groups in an effort to discredit them.
How SHI scores changed from 2021 to 2022
In 2022, a majority of the world’s 25 most populous countries had small changes in their SHI scores. Five countries had modest changes, and one country – Iran – had a large increase in social hostilities.
Italy had a small change in its SHI score, from 3.1 to 3.7, enough to shift it from the “moderate” to the “high” category. This was partly due to new reports of recruitment to religion-related terrorist groups within the country. In June, a married couple in Italy was arrested for planning an attack “on behalf of” the militant group ISIS, according to the U.S. State Department. The couple was reported to have been “radicalized to violence online” and was charged with “recruitment, association, and training for the purpose of terrorism.”
Iran’s SHI score went up from 2.8 to 5.6 in 2022, moving it from the “moderate” to the “high” SHI category. For more information on incidents that led to Iran’s SHI change and on other countries that had large changes (outside of the 25 most populous), go to Chapter 1.
