WARSAW — Poland is set to change governments following the October 15 election, but the incoming administration isn’t planning any major revolution in procurement, defense spending or military posture.
“We’re not going to cancel any contracts. We don’t want our allies to view Poland as unpredictable,” Tomasz Siemoniak, who served as defense minister from 2011 to 2015 and is seen as a potential candidate to return to the post, told POLITICO.
He is a senior member of the Civic Coalition grouping led by Donald Tusk, the candidate to be prime minister of three opposition parties that together have a majority in the new parliament. Tusk, for now, has been silent on defense issues.
However, Siemoniak’s views are shared by other parts of the future ruling coalition.
“We voted to increase spending on armaments and we said during the campaign that we would maintain all the armaments contracts we had started,” Stefan Krajewski, an MP with the Third Way grouping, told Polish state television. “We will not liquidate or suspend anything.”
Siemoniak’s caution is a marked contrast with what happened when the Law and Justice (PiS) party took power in 2015. One of its first acts was to cancel a contract with Airbus for 50 Caracal helicopters worth 13.5 billion złoty (€3 billion) — enraging the French government.
However, besides that high-profile move, much of the defense sector policy of the PiS government was built on the foundations laid by the previous Tusk government and by Siemoniak in the 2012 military modernization strategy.
The PiS government increased the size of the military and made national security one of its top priorities — an effort driven by Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 followed by last year’s full-blown war.
Poland is now a key member of the pro-Ukraine alliance, funneling billions in weapons and ammunition from Western allies to Kyiv, as well as sending Ukraine much of its Soviet-era weaponry including tanks and fighter jets.
Dangerous neighborhood
The election hasn’t changed Poland’s geopolitical position. Warsaw will still be a close military ally of Ukraine, a key part of the NATO alliance and a regional partner for the United States. The new government will have to continue modernizing Poland’s military and make up for the gaps caused by sending large amounts of equipment and ammunition to Kyiv.
The PiS government sketched out a plan to increase the military to 300,000 personnel — up from 186,000 now — and equip them with new tanks, missiles, air defense systems and aircraft, chiefly from the U.S. and South Korea.
It also increased defense spending to 3.9 percent of GDP this year — the highest among all NATO members, ahead of traditional top spenders the U.S. and Greece at 3.49 percent and 3.01 percent, respectively.
The incoming government isn’t calling for a revolution, although Siemoniak said it will take a close look at how its predecessors acted.
“What we are concerned with was lack of transparency and dialog with the opposition and top officers on what’s really needed,” said Siemoniak.
What’s also not clear is what will happen to military plans that hadn’t yet been finalized in binding contracts. For example, Warsaw signed a $3.4 billion deal with Korea’s Hyundai Rotem for 180 K2 tanks, but has talked of acquiring a fleet of about a thousand.
As one of its first acts in office, the new government plans a thorough review of the PiS administration’s spending priorities.
Siemoniak also called the outgoing government’s plans for a 300,000-strong military unrealistic, thanks to the country’s shrinking population and difficulty in competing with the private sector.
“I said before the election and I’m going to say it again now: We should aim at an army of 220,000, with 150,000 professional troops being its core,” Siemoniak said. “That would be more in sync with the planned equipment purchases, Poland’s demographic situation and the situation on the labor market.”
Siemoniak’s words sparked outrage from PiS Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak.
“So it begins. Siemoniak’s words means layoff in the armed forces, liquidation of units, and degrading Poland’s security,” Błaszczak said on X.
“Błaszczak, don’t lie,” fired back Siemoniak.
“Mr. Błaszczak says that representatives of the democratic opposition, who will soon take responsibility for the country, want to reduce the army, which is not true,” said Mirosław Różański, a retired general elected as a senator for the opposition.
Politics and the military
PiS was criticized for using the military as a backdrop for political events during the election campaign, and there will be pressure for the new coalition to ensure the military isn’t involved in politics.
“The new government should depoliticize the army,” said Marcin Zaborowski, a director with the Globsec think tank.
However, that won’t be easy as President Andrzej Duda, a PiS loyalist, is the titular head of the armed forces and in charge of nominating senior officers on the advice of the government.
“Personnel changes in the [defense] ministry are also inevitable since PiS’s policy has been to hire people based on their loyalty to the party rather than competence,” Zaborowski added.
Zaborowski called on the new government to ensure that more of Poland’s defense spending goes to European companies.
“It would be good if a large European investment in arms manufacturing happened in Poland,” he said.
He also said it makes sense for a close look at some of the outgoing administration’s plans.
“For example, do we really need so many HIMARS launchers?” Zaborowski said, referring to recent plans to buy as many as 486 U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems on top of an order from 2019 to bring the overall number to over 500.
