IATA’s February 2023 data for global air cargo
markets shows that during the month demand rose above pre-pandemic levels
for the first time in eight months.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers
(CTK), fell 7.5% compared to February 2022 (-8.3% for
international operations). That is half the rate of annual decline
seen in the previous two months (-14.9% and -15.3% respectively).
February demand for air cargo was 2.9% higher than pre-pandemic
levels (February 2019).
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers
(ACTK), was up 8.6% compared to February 2022. The strong uptick in
ACTK reflects the addition of belly capacity as the passenger
side of the business continues to recover. International
belly-capacity grew by 57% in February year-on-year, reaching
75.1% of the 2019 (pre-pandemic) capacity.
Several factors in the operating environment
should be noted:
– The global new export orders component of the
manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator of cargo demand, continued
to increase in February. China’s PMI level surpassed the critical
50-mark indicating that demand for manufactured goods from the
world’s largest export economy is growing.
– Global goods trade decreased by 1.5% in January, a slower rate of decline than the previous month of
-3.3%.
– The Consumer Price Index for G7 countries
decreased from 6.7% in January to 6.4% in February. Inflation in
producer (input) prices reduced by 2.2 percentage points to 9.6%
in December (last available data).
“The story of air cargo in February is one of
slowing declines,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“Year-on-year demand fell by 7.5%. That’s half the rate of decline
experienced in January. This shifting of gears was sufficient to
boost the overall industry into positive territory (+2.9%)
compared to pre-pandemic levels. An optimistic eye could see the
start of an improvement trend that leads to market stabilization
and a return to more normal demand patterns after dramatic
ups-and-downs in recent years.”
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes
decrease by 6% in February 2023 compared to the same month in
2022. This was a significant improvement in performance compared
to January (-19%). Airlines in the region benefitted from
China’s reopening, which saw restrictions lifted and economic
activities resumed. Available capacity in the region increased by
19.9% compared to February 2022 as more and more belly capacity
came online from the passenger side of the business.
North American carriers posted a 3.2% decrease in
cargo volumes in February 2023 compared to the same month in 2022.
This was a solid improvement in performance compared to January
(-8.7%). Notably, the region saw a significant increase in
international demand in February which boosted its market share in
international cargo traffic to beyond pre-pandemic levels (21.7%
in February 2023 versus 18.2% in February 2019). Capacity increased 2.8%
compared to February 2022.
European carriers saw the weakest performance of
all regions with a 15.3% decrease in cargo volumes in February
2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was an improvement
in performance compared to January (-20.4%). Airlines in the
region continue to be most affected by the war in Ukraine.
Capacity decreased 1.5% in February 2023 compared to February
2022.
Middle Eastern carriers experienced an 8.1%
year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in February 2023. This was
a slight improvement to the previous month (-11.8%). Capacity
increased 9.3% compared to February 2022.
Latin American carriers reported a 2.7% decrease
in cargo volumes in February 2023 compared to February 2022. This
was a drop in performance compared to January which saw a 4.6%
increase. Capacity in February was up 27.6% compared to the same
month in 2022.
African airlines saw cargo volumes decrease by
3.4% in February 2023 compared to February 2022. This was an
improvement in performance compared to the previous month (-9.5%).
Notably, the Africa to Asia route area experienced significant
cargo demand growth in February, up 39.5% year-on-year. Capacity
was 4.7% above February 2022 levels.
