How to watch Germany’s state elections like a pro – POLITICO

NÜRNBERG — Germans in Bavaria and Hesse will head to the polls on Sunday in state elections serving as a bellwether of the national mood during a time of rising angst over issues like the economy, migration and the fallout of the war in Ukraine.

Bavaria is Germany’s second-most populous state, and Hesse is home to Frankfurt, the country’s financial center and one of its biggest metropolitan areas. Some 20 million people, about one-quarter of the country’s population, live in these states. The election results ought to give us a better sense of just how much angst Germans are feeling across the country.

It’s not looking good for the three parties that comprise Germany’s ruling coalition on the federal level — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP). The Christian Democrats (CDU) and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) have been trying to cast the state elections as a referendum on the ruling coalition. It’s no wonder why. Only 19 percent of Germans believe Scholz’s coalition government is doing a good job.

Sunday’s election outcome “will be a disastrous result for the government coalition,” Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU said at a political rally in Bavaria on Wednesday evening. He may be right about that. But who will be the main political beneficiaries? That’s a more complex story.

Here’s what to watch out for.

What’s at stake in Bavaria

The conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), led by Bavarian premier Markus Söder, has ruled the state almost continuously since the end of World War II. That’s not going to change on Sunday. The party is leading in polls, projected to get about 36 percent of the vote.

That’s a pretty good result by current standards. But in the larger scheme of things, that would be one of the CSU’s worst outcomes ever. In previous decades, the CSU routinely won a majority of the vote. But since 2018, it has been forced to rule in coalition with a right-wing upstart party called the Free Voters.

That party is led by Hubert Aiwanger, a populist conservative and farmer by training who was recently enmeshed in a scandal involving allegations that he authored an anti-Semitic leaflet while he was a student in high school. When the allegations surfaced, Aiwanger depicted himself as the victim of a media smear campaign. Many Germans seemed to sympathize. The Free Voters experienced a big bump in polls. So much for Germany’s “memory culture.”

Polls suggest the AfD will also improve on its performance from the previous state election. Right now, the party is competing for second place with the Free Voters and the Greens. If the AfD makes it into second place in Bavaria even though two other conservative parties in the state are competing for right-wing votes, that would be significant news. It would suggest that the AfD is consolidating its base of support outside the party’s heartland in the former East Germany.

That would be particularly bad news for Söder. The Bavarian, one of the country’s most popular politicians, has long toyed with the idea of launching a bid to become chancellor. If the results are particularly poor for the CSU, it would be hard for him to make the argument that he’s the man for the job.

So even as Söder is likely to celebrate a clear win on Sunday evening after the results come in, the real story to watch is whether his party will be able to stave off the decline of its once mighty Bavarian empire.

What’s at stake in Hesse

In Hesse, there is also a clear frontrunner. Boris Rhein of the CDU is set for an easy win. As in Bavaria, the more exciting question is who will come in second. Three parties ­­— the Greens, the SPD and the AfD — are vying for the spot.

The CDU currently rules the state in coalition with the Greens. It’s quite possible things will stay that way after the election as it’s not entirely clear that the CDU has a better choice.

The SPD is polling very poorly in the state, at least by historic standards. If the SPD falls into third or fourth place, it would be particularly bad for Nancy Faeser, Scholz’s federal interior minister. Faeser wanted to change jobs and take over the premiership of the state, and so decided to run as her party’s lead candidate there. But the SPD’s troubles in the state mean she may ultimately lose both jobs.

Meanwhile, the Free Voters party, which has ambitions to expand out of Bavaria, is lurking in Hesse too. The party is hoping to get over the five-percent hurdle required to enter the state parliament. It’s close to doing so. The party is now polling at four percent. If the Free Voters can pass the hurdle, it would be more evidence of the splintering of Germany’s party system.

The implications for Germany and the EU

The expected poor performance of the three parties that make up Germany’s fractious ruling coalition will likely aggravate tensions within the federal government. Those tensions are very likely to be felt on the EU level too. Officials in Brussels often joke that if you ask the German position on any number of issues, the answer will invariably be: “Which of the three?”

The squabbling is not about to get better. The situation is particularly grave for the FDP, whose leaders have often clashed with the Greens, particularly on climate measures. Now, the FDP is fighting to make it over the five-percent hurdle in both Hesse and Bavaria.

There are few things more volatile in politics than a group of politicians fighting for survival. One wonders what FDP leaders will now do in order to try to win back their conservative voters. SPD and Greens be warned!

These are difficult times for Germany. The economy is in the midst of a contraction, and a turnaround doesn’t appear to be anywhere in sight. Fears of the consequences of a long war in Ukraine are pervasive. Dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of migration is growing.

It’s a very bad time to have a historically unpopular government beset by infighting. The bottom line is this: State elections on Sunday are likely to make the coalition government’s problems even worse.

When to expect results

Exit polls will be published right as the ballots close at 6 p.m. in Berlin. More reliable results from polling stations usually come in fast, and by 8 p.m., the outcome of the election will be pretty much set. Party leaders are expected to start making speeches at around 6:30 p.m.