Following Robert F. Kennedy’s recent exit from the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among registered voters at 49% each.
Harris and Trump also remain at near parity in strength of support, with about six-in-ten of each candidate’s supporters backing them strongly. Harris backers continue to support her more strongly than Biden’s did earlier this year.
Most voters also indicate they have made up their mind about which candidate they will support, with at least eight-in-ten Harris and Trump supporters saying they are certain they’ll support their preferred candidate.
Voting preferences among demographic groups
The demographic patterns of support for Harris and Trump are similar to a month ago.
- Gender: Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), while the opposite is true for women.
- Race and ethnicity: Black voters continue to overwhelmingly support Harris (84%). Narrower majorities of Asian (61%) and Hispanic (57%) voters also back Harris. A majority of White voters (56%) support Trump.
- Education: Voters without a bachelor’s degree break for Trump 53% to 44%, while Harris leads among voters with a four-year degree or more education (57% vs. 41%)
- Age: Voters under 50 are more likely to say they will vote for or lean toward Harris (54%) than Trump (44%), while voters ages 50 and older back Trump over Harris by a similar margin (53% vs. 46%).
Other groups: Union members, veterans
Harris has an advantage over Trump among union members (57% vs. 41%). By comparison, nonmembers are closely divided (50% back Trump vs. 48% Harris).
Trump holds an advantage among veterans: 61% back him, while 37% support Harris. Nonveterans narrowly tilt toward Harris (51% vs. 47% back Trump).
For more on voting preferences among demographic groups, refer to the detailed tables.
Support for Harris, Trump among voters and nonvoters in recent elections
Among voters who backed their party’s candidates in previous presidential races, Harris and Trump have overwhelming – and nearly identical – levels of support.
Biden 2020 voters
More than nine-in-ten voters who backed Biden in 2020 (93%) now support Harris.
Nearly all of Biden’s voters who also backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 (95%) now support Harris.
Harris also gets the overwhelming support of Biden’s 2020 voters who didn’t vote for Clinton in 2016 – either because they backed a different candidate or because they didn’t vote. But Harris’ margin among these groups is somewhat slimmer than among those who had backed both Clinton and Biden.
Trump 2020 voters
The pattern among Trump’s 2020 voters is nearly identical: He retains the support of 94% of those who voted for him in 2020, including 97% of those who backed him in both 2016 and 2020. But his support is softer among those who voted for him in 2020 but not 2016.
2020 nonvoters
Voters who did not vote in 2020 – including both those who were eligible to vote and those who were not yet of voting age – are split in their current vote preferences. Half say they would vote for or lean toward Harris if the election were held today, while 46% say they would support Trump.
How Harris and Trump supporters see their vote
Harris supporters are about evenly divided over whether they see their vote as more of a vote for Harris (48%) or more of a vote against Trump (51%).
This stands in contrast with Biden backers four years ago, who were far more likely to see their vote as primarily against Trump (63%) rather than for Biden (36%).
By comparison, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say their vote is for Trump instead of against Harris (67% vs. 32%). This is slightly lower than in 2020, when 71% said their vote was in support of Trump.
Do voters think it’s clear who will win?
By four-to-one (80% to 20%), voters – including majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters – don’t think it’s clear who is going to win the 2024 presidential election.
Trump supporters are slightly more likely than Harris supporters to say the outcome is already clear:
- 15% of Harris voters say it’s already clear who the winner will be, while 85% say it’s not yet clear.
- 25% of Trump supporters say it’s already clear who will win; 75% say it’s not yet clear.
Among those who say it’s already clear who will win, most say it is their preferred candidate who will prevail (13% of Harris supporters overall, 21% of Trump supporters overall).
