IATA’s global air cargo data for October 2022 shows that headwinds continue to affect
demand.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers
(CTK), fell 13.6% compared to October 2021 (-13.5% for
international operations).
Capacity was 0.6% below October
2021, the first year-on-year contraction since April
2022. Month-on-month capacity, however, increased by 2.4% in
preparation for the year-end peak season. International cargo
capacity grew 2.4% compared to October 2021.
Several factors
in the operating environment should be noted:
– New export
orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, are shrinking in all
markets except China and South Korea, which registered slightly
higher new export orders in October;
– Latest global goods
trade figures showed a 5.6% expansion in September, a positive
sign for the global economy. This is expected to primarily benefit
maritime cargo, with a slight boost to air cargo as well.
– The
US dollar has seen a sharp appreciation, with the broad real
effective exchange rate in September 2022 reaching the highest
level since 1986.
– A strong dollar affects air cargo. As many costs
are denominated in dollars, the currency’s appreciation adds
another layer of cost on top of high inflation and high jet fuel
prices.
– The Consumer Price Index increased slightly in G7
countries in October and remains at a decades’ high level of 7.8%.
Inflation in producer (input) prices reduced by 0.5 percentage
points to 13.3% in September.
“Air cargo continues
to demonstrate resilience as headwinds persist. Cargo demand in
October — while tracking below the exceptional performance of
October 2021– saw a 3.5% increase in demand compared to
September. This indicates that the year-end will still bring a
traditional peak-season boost despite economic uncertainties. But
as 2022 closes out it appears that the current economic
uncertainties will follow into the New Year and need continued
close monitoring,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw cargo
volumes decrease by 14.7% in October 2022 compared to the same
month in 2021, a decline in performance of -10.7% compared to
September. Airlines in the region continue to be impacted
by the war in Ukraine, and lower levels of trade and manufacturing
activity due to Omicron-related restrictions in China. Available
capacity in the region decreased by 2.8% compared to 2021.
North American carriers posted an 8.6% decrease in
cargo volumes in October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021, a decline in performance
of 6% compared to September.
Capacity increased 2.4% compared to October 2021.
European carriers saw an 18.8% decrease in cargo volumes in
October 2022 compared to the same month in 2021, the
worst performance of all regions and a decline in performance
of -15.6% compared to September. High inflation levels, most notably in Türkiye,
affected volumes, as did the situation in Ukraine. Capacity decreased 5.2% in October 2022 compared
to October 2021.
Middle Eastern carriers
experienced a 15% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in
October 2022, a marginal improvement of -15.8% on the previous
month. Capacity increased 1% compared to October
2021.
Latin American carriers reported a decrease
in demand of 1.4% in cargo volumes in October 2022 compared to
October 2021, the strongest performance of all regions,
though still a significant decline in performance compared
to September (-10.8%), the first decline in volumes since
March 2021. Capacity in October was up 19.2% compared to the same
month in 2021.
African airlines saw cargo volumes
decrease by 8.3% in October 2022 compared to October 2021, a significant decrease in the growth recorded the previous
month (0.1%). Capacity was 7.4% below October 2021 levels.
