Critics are quick to punch holes in the case for Meloni’s influence on the world stage. Despite some upbeat headlines, Italy’s economy is stuck in second gear, weakening Rome’s credibility on big policy decisions. And despite the current dismal state of Franco-German relations, Paris and Berlin are still, structurally speaking, pace-setters for European policy, with Poland under Prime Minister Donald Tusk an increasingly crucial player.
Opponents in Italy also warn that Meloni’s government is using a campaign against surrogate pregnancies to quietly erode LGBTQ+ rights. “As can be expected from a ‘God, homeland and family’ brand conservative, Meloni and her party have long been hostile to the advancement of LGBTQ+ equality in the realm of domestic life, ardently opposing same-sex parenthood,” Andrea Carlo, a British-Italian researcher, wrote in an op-ed for POLITICO last year.
In November, U.S. voters will choose between incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. If the former prevails, Meloni may well carry forward a relationship that both the White House and her own office define as “positive.” If it’s Trump, she could cash in on months of discrete efforts to woo the MAGA right, becoming a European ally less toxic than Hungary’s Viktor Orbán — a sort of Maggie Thatcher to his Ronald Reagan, to use a highly imperfect analogy.
“She is by far in Italy the closest politician to Trump,” said Marco Damilano, an Italian political analyst. “And on the European level, her government would be best positioned” to build ties with the Trump administration.
Despite a recent election defeat in Sardinia, Meloni’s approval rating — 41 percent — remains improbably high for an Italian PM two years into the job. The question is now: What will she do with her political capital, and will she remain faithful to the pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO camp in the event Trump returns to the White House and she becomes High Priestess of the European Right?
For now, Meloni is proving particularly adept at the Italian diplomatic tradition of playing both sides. Rather than become a European bogeywoman à la Orbán, Meloni has remained inside the tent while exerting growing influence over EU policy over the past two years.
