The possible sabotage of a pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia may be part of a campaign designed to intimidate Ukraine’s allies — and Helsinki should be braced for further destabilization attempts, former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb told POLITICO.
“We are pretty sure it’s not the Swedes,” said Stubb when asked who or what could have caused a leak in the 77-kilometer-long Balticconnector pipeline. “We knew that when the war began in Ukraine, we knew there would be hybrid and cyber intimidation. This is part of it.”
Stubb stopped short of accusing a particular actor, Russia or anyone else, of being behind the pipeline leak, which was discovered on Sunday. The director of Finland’s intelligence service, Antti Pelttari, said Thursday that Helsinki hasn’t ruled out the leak being the result of sabotage by a “state actor.”
Yet the former prime minister, who’s held several other posts in government including foreign minister, underscored the sophistication of a potential sabotage that would have required “more than one individual doing it,” and that could be consistent with Russian attempts to destabilize Ukrainian allies.
“I myself initiated that particular Balticconnector pipeline, together with the Estonian prime minister. We wanted to reduce our gas dependence on Russia and we wanted to have a direct connection. It [the connector] is a natural target for whoever wants to break that link,” he said, adding that Finland was “prepared” for further attempts at destabilization.
Seven years after stepping off the stage as Finnish finance minister, the fitness-obsessed Stubb — he’s a triathlete and a self-described “sports nut” — is back on the campaign trail and bidding to become his country’s next president in elections next January. He’s neck-and-neck with the Green party candidate, Pekka Haavisto, according to a September poll by YLE.
Whoever wins will have a crucial role in the Western alliance backing Ukraine against Russia’s full-scale invasion. Finland, which became NATO’s newest member in April of this year, is currently negotiating an agreement with Washington for the U.S. to maintain a permanent presence in the country. The job of negotiating that deal falls to Finland’s president, who, under the constitution, is in charge of security and foreign policy while the prime minister handles EU and domestic affairs.
“It’s an ongoing process,” Stubb said of talks between Helsinki and Washington about a possible defense cooperation agreement (DCA) that would see U.S. troops stationed in Finland. Asked about the deal’s timing, Stubb said it was “imminent. I would say within the next six months. These are complicated agreements, so that’s why it takes a bit of time.”
Keep ‘cool’ on Trump
Finland’s president has traditionally acted as a conduit to Russia for the West owing to the two countries’ close history, which includes many wars.
But after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Stubb said that Helsinki’s relations with Moscow were unlikely to return to normal anytime soon. “Is there a possibility for normal relations with Russia in the next six years? I think that’s highly unlikely. And if that relationship exists, it’s going to have to be based on a mandate from our allies,” he said.
“So if [U.S. President] Joe Biden calls a Finnish president that said, you know, could you talk to Putin, then probably yes, but the other contacts are going to have to be under the radar,” he added.
While other European countries downgraded their defense capabilities after the Cold War, Finland maintained an exceptional state of readiness. The country has 900,000 reservists, more than 15 percent of the population, 280,000 of whom it can call up in one week, and Helsinki last year purchased 64 of Lockheed Martin’s F35 combat jets for a price of nearly $10 billion.
The threat of confrontation with Russia — against which Finland has fought numerous wars, including the 1939-1940 Winter War — has primed Helsinki to bolster its deterrent capacity, including by maintaining mandatory army service for all adult males aged 18 and up.
In light of Finland’s hefty investment in defense, Stubb sounded relaxed about the possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump being reelected next year — a prospect that is unsettling several EU countries due to the possibility that Trump could seek to downgrade the US’s involvement in NATO, or even leave the alliance altogether.
“The political climate in the U.S. is toxic. It is not fact-based. It’s almost as if the oldest democracy in the world is sort of creaking around the edges,” he said. “Now having said that, am I worried about Biden or a Biden-like, or Trump or a Trump-like [winning the election]? No, because I think, whether you like it or not, American foreign policy is going to remain the same.”
That said, Stubb underscored that U.S. strategic priorities were “changing” and that its interests would probably lie “somewhere else” than Europe after the Ukraine war is over. EU countries had to be prepared for the change and to support Ukraine’s reconstruction, he added.
“Does Europe need to be more Finnish? Perhaps to a certain extent, but Europe now has the safest of walls … Are we going to see an increased militarization of Europe? The answer is yes. Are we going to see increased budget spending on defense? The answer is yes,” he said.
Speaking to POLITICO in Brussels three days after Israel ramped up strikes against the Gaza Strip following an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants, Stubb said that Israel had a “full right” and “in many ways a duty as well” to protect itself.
“At the same time,” he added, “it’s very important that we protect civilians and stick to humanitarian and international justice rules.”
