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— Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton will tell the College of Commissioners today that he needs a bit more time to draft up a long-term financing scheme for Europe’s military.
— Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges sees significant progress being made by Ukraine, despite the fact they’ve not gotten long-range strike capabilities from the U.S. and Germany.
— With Israeli forces seemingly poised to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, two experts wonder if European militaries would be able to do the same if needed.
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BRETON WANTS TO WAIT ON DEFENSE STRATEGY: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton will today ask his colleagues in the College of Commissioners to push back the planned November 8 publication of a European defense investment program. That’s because the French commissioner, a vocal supporter of building up the bloc’s military production industry, wants more time to consult with capitals.
Hold your position: Last week, Breton met EU defense CEOs for breakfast before giving a speech at an industry conference in Brussels arguing that an “ambitious” funding program should be set up to make sure there was a “genuine industrial program for defense in the next multi-annual financial framework.” That plan was set to drop on November 8, but a Commission official told our Giorgio Leali in Paris that more time was needed to firm up the proposal, adding that the text could even be delayed to the beginning of next year.
What’s at play: It’s been hard to get EU countries to agree to defense spending. There’s the €8 billion European Defense Fund, used for research and projects to better connect national militaries. The EU also currently has two short-term instruments for financing munitions and weaponry that are off-budget (meaning not listed in the MFF). First, there’s the EDIRPA joint procurement fund of €300 million for countries that want to place orders together, and there’s also ASAP, a €500 million fund to scale up production of ammunition and missiles.
Still on track: Even though Breton is seeking more time, the Commission insists November is fixed. “The European defence industrial strategy is still planned for November 8,” Commission spokesperson Johanna Bernsel told Morning Defense. “As usual, this is an indicative timing.”
Building bridges: To transform those pots into a lasting financing instrument for the defense industry, Breton is pushing for a so-called European investment program (EDIP). That would bridge the EU’s funding between the end of standing programs in 2025 (EDIRPA and ASAP) and the next long-term budget which only starts from 2027. “I’ve been pushing this EDIP program … which will enable us to bridge the gap,” Breton told Giorgio for Morning Defense in Paris on Monday, declining to put a price tag on the upcoming package.
Missing €20 billion: It’s looking increasingly unlikely EU leaders will agree on a €20 billion boost to the off-budget European Peace Facility to sustain arms deliveries to Ukraine over the next four years before a summit on October 26. Following our exclusive reporting in Friday’s edition that it’s not referenced at all in draft conclusions the leaders agree in advance, Euractiv has more glum news that it won’t be firmed up this month.
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THE EURO-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP:The Hudson Institute holds a discussion on “Transatlantic Ties in an Unstable World” with Czech National Security Adviser (and the country’s former ambassador to Israel) Tomáš Pojar at 10 a.m. local time in Washington DC (4 p.m. CET).
ROYAL NAVY: Also in the District, the Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a discussion on “modern issues facing the Royal Navy” with Admiral Ben Key, the head of the Royal Navy, at 3 p.m. local time (11 p.m. CET).
GERMAN DIPLOMACY: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will receive Jordanian King Abdullah II in Berlin this morning before embarking on a two-day trip to Israel and Egypt.
**A message from ASD: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has revealed important capability gaps in European armed forces, which must be addressed urgently. However, short-term needs must not compromise the development of future defence capabilities. Learn more.**
BEN HODGES ON UKRAINE: Morning Defense sat down with Ben Hodges, a retired American three-star and former commanding general of the United States Army Europe and Africa, to talk about all things Ukraine, from progress on the front to future prospects for the war.
Local defense production: “There are risks involved to reliable power sources, losing your labor, etc., as well as being targeted,” Hodges said about Ukraine’s prospects for manufacturing war materiel in-country. “But I think this will be an important part of not only helping Ukraine defend itself but its long-term viability of having a vibrant defense industry in Ukraine.”
Ukrainian counteroffensive: Kyiv’s counteroffensive has been grueling, but Hodges thinks the Ukrainians are doing alright. “The counteroffensive is so much more than just the land part,” he said, speaking on the sidelines of an event held by the Globsec think tank. “The Ukrainians are doing what NATO talks about, which is multi-domain operations, air, land, sea, cyber, information, all of the different domains of modern warfare.”
Sophisticated strikes: Despite more limited land progress, the Ukrainians are punching above their weight and hitting important nodes in Russia’s war machine. “Meanwhile, you’ve got Ukrainian drones that are hitting all over Russia, causing problems for their commercial air traffic and infrastructure,” Hodges said. “You’ve got these impressive, sophisticated strikes on Crimea, that took out radar and took out the drydock facility, took out a submarine, and then took out a headquarters. Those were not coincidences, that was a very sophisticated effort.”
Ukraine needs long-range strike capabilities: If the United States and Germany were genuinely committed to helping Ukraine win, “they would be doing what’s necessary to help [Ukraine] liberate Crimea. And that would mean long-range precision weapons like ATACMS, like Taurus, that would enable Ukraine to make Crimea, untenable, unusable, unlivable, for Russian forces.” Still, Hodges believes that Ukraine is still making progress on the battlefield, “even though the U.S. and Germany still have not provided the best long-range capabilities.” (Caleb’s recent story on Berlin’s reluctance to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine here.)
PUTIN HAMMERS UKRAINE WITH WEST DISTRACTED: While world leaders focus on trying to solve the crisis in Israel, Russian forces seem to be increasing pressure and resuming attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Attacks and outages: Over the weekend, the Russians attacked the Kherson region, causing an electricity and water supply disruption. Russian attacks caused power outages in six Ukrainian regions, Ukraine’s state energy operator Ukrenergo, said in a statement.
Update on the front: At the same time, Russian forces increased pressure on the Ukrainian army in several parts of the front. Veronika has the story here, from Kyiv.
**Save the date – POLITICO Live’s Defense Launch event will take place on November 21 to discuss what is currently shaping Europe’s defense policy and the role of NATO. Register now!**
MASS MOBILIZATION: In the aftermath of the Hamas attack, the Israel Defense Forces have called up hundreds of thousands of reservists — most in-country, but mobilized personnel continue stream into the country from all over the world.
The takeaway: Franz-Stefan Gady, a consulting senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, lauded the nation’s mobilization. “In terms of cold start capability the IDF remains unmatched by the rest of the world,” Gady said. “A large-scale cold-start capability is what European militaries need to prop up conventional deterrence.”
Quantity AND quality: Gady told Morning Defense that “mass and quantity of soldiers and military hardware is just as important as quality. Consequently, the IDF, in particular the ground forces, remain a conscript force with total mobilization capacity likely exceeding 400,000. “Given that the country lacks strategic depth it has established one if not the most effective mobilization system in the world and maintains its forces in a high state of readiness.”
Finland’s call-up capacity: Only a few NATO countries have conscript militaries, but NATO’s newest member is one. Minna Ålander, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, echoed Gady on Bluesky. “Finland has a similar wartime troop strength (280,000),” she said. “We can only hope that our large-scale cold-start capability won’t be put to a real test.”
GERMAN WEAPONS FOR ISRAEL: Berlin wants to make sure that Israel gets all the weapons it needs for self-defense and has decided to fast-track its arms export authorization procedure. “For commercial applications from companies for arms exports to Israel, these will be processed with priority given the current situation,” a person with knowledge of the decision told POLITICO.
On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “Israel has every right to defend itself.”
FIRST LOCATION FOR GERMANY’S NEW ARROW 3 INTERCEPTOR: The Holzdorf air base at Schönewalde will host Germany’s recently acquired Arrow 3 air defense system, the German Defense Ministry said in a statement. The base will be the first of three locations for the Arrow 3, a joint Israeli-American project that Berlin recently selected as the long-rage component of its Sky Shield system.
Helicopters too: Holzdorf will also host 47 out of the 60 new Boeing CH-47F Chinook heavy lift helicopters Germany currently has on order. The infrastructure upgrades necessary to host helicopters and air defense are estimated at €550 million, and Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, said the first three helicopters will be stationed at Holzdorf in 2027.
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VOLVO DELIVERS TO SWEDEN: The Swedish Defense Materiel Administration delivered 20 all-wheel drive flatbed trucks to the Swedish armed forces. The Volvo trucks are part of a 300 truck order.
MOVING TO RHEINMETALL: Caroline Donaghy is moving to Rheinmetall Defence UK from ADS Group., where she will start as campaign lead.
CABINET DISMISSAL: Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre dismissed Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt Monday after trades her husband made in shares of Kongsberg Gruppen, a Norwegian arms manufacturer, came to light. Our colleague Nicolas has the story on the cabinet reshuffle here.
UNITED STATES: Our U.S. colleagues report that White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that President Joe Biden hopes to push a new weapons package for Israel and Ukraine through Congress that will be “significantly higher” than $2 billion.
THANKS TO: Jan Cienski and Zoya Sheftalovich.
**A message from ASD: Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted most European countries to significantly increase their defence budgets. However, most of this increase has been dedicated to filling immediate capability gaps, primarily via the procurement of off-the-shelf equipment. Urgent short-term actions must not be slowed down, but they should not undermine long-term collaborative projects and investment in what will be the basis of Europe’s future defence capabilities: high-end research & development that generates technological innovation and ensures the continued operational superiority of our armed forces. At the European level, we need a significant increase of the budget line for the European Defence Fund (EDF) both under the mid-term review of the current and under the next Multi-Annual Financial Framework. The EDF has proven to effectively incentivise collaborative defence research and development projects across European borders but needs more resources and a more strategic approach to further enhance its positive impact. Read more.**
