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LONDON — Suella Braverman might be finally facing her Waterlooville.
The arch-Brexiteer MP and home secretary faces a tough selection battle in the newly created Fareham and Waterlooville constituency in Hampshire, following changes to the U.K.’s parliamentary boundary system. The showdown has been dubbed “the battle of Waterlooville” by locals.
As part of those changes, Braverman’s Fareham constituency is absorbing the nearby seat of Meon Valley, currently held by fellow Tory MP Flick Drummond, leading to a straight fight between the two.
In one corner is Braverman, a Brexit-backing, culture war-fighting darling of the Conservative Party’s right-wing and one of Rishi Sunak’s most senior ministers. As the party attempts to reverse its dire standing in the polls, Braverman as home secretary has been in the spotlight spearheading tough new efforts to crack down on cross-Channel migration.
In the “Wet” corner is Drummond, an unabashed Europhile who backed Remain and is on the party’s centrist, more socially liberal wing.
Tory members in the new constituency will decide the winner who takes it all Wednesday evening, with a result expected around 9 p.m. Only one can stand in the seat, which is in a leafy, safe Tory area of southern England.
Drummond is the favorite to win. The ConservativeHome website — known for its insight into grass-root Toryism — quoted “local sources” in February who said that Braverman was “not universally popular amongst local members” and that constituents want a candidate who “will be a dutiful local champion.”
Drummond, as a backbench MP who doesn’t often make headlines, is said to better fit that bill. One veteran Tory association member, who is from a different part of the country, told POLITICO that “contrary to the narrative,” association members were not always fixated on “Brexit and COVID and Grassy Knollington conspiracy theories.”
“This isn’t about who’s going to be prime minister. This is about who is going to represent Waterlooville,” the Tory member said, adding that members wanted to hear a “bit of local knowledge, and examples of how they helped ‘Mrs Miggins’ fix her roof. That’s what the punters like.”
However, Braverman’s recent profile at the helm of government efforts on thwarting small boats carrying migrants from France could convince some of her constituents. She came forth in ConservativeHome’s most recent league table of Cabinet member satisfaction among members.
She remains a divisive figure. Local Tory councillor Caroline Brook told Times Radio that if Braverman was to win the selection race, she would “struggle” to campaign for her in the constituency.
“I disagree fundamentally with her on some of her views,” Brook said.
Couldn’t escape if I wanted to
If she is defeated at Waterlooville, Braverman isn’t for surrendering yet. But she might meet her destiny in quite a similar way.
She has reportedly put herself forward, as a second preference to the Waterlooville seat, as a candidate for the neighboring Hamble Valley seat. She would face Tory MP Paul Holmes in that selection battle.
A report in the Times suggested that Braverman is also looking at the nearby Windsor constituency, where incumbent MP Adam Afriyie is stepping down at the next election.
Braverman’s struggle to find a constituency reflects ongoing fights within the party over the safest constituencies. POLITICO reported in March that senior Tories are concerned that with polling showing the opposition Labour Party on course for a landslide victory, MPs in so-called northern Red Wall seats are considering fleeing to safer ground.
Changes to the U.K. constituency map mean politicians of all stripes are scrambling to claim and reclaim territories ahead of an election due by the end of 2024.
Some MPs have been forced to hunt for new seats because the boundaries of their current ones are being substantially redrawn. But half a dozen or more are accused of using minor changes as an excuse to attempt so-called chicken runs to more heavily Tory-voting areas.
