Ireland’s claim was based on their near permanent occupation of the number one ranking spot since 2022; time in which they won a series in New Zealand and picked up a Six Nations Grand Slam.
The Irish had also beaten South Africa in their last three encounters before playing them in Pretoria this July. The Springboks’ argument was that they are the current world champions, having successfully defended their 2019 title.
The two-test series was split one win each and so it was no clearer who had the stronger claim. But what has become apparent and was accentuated throughout July, is that the All Blacks are not featuring in this wider conversation about world domination.
Whether it’s South Africa one, Ireland two, or the other way around – no one disputes these two are the global game’s standard-setters, and that France are almost on the same tier.
South Africa’s series against Ireland was intense, brutal, dramatic and after two cataclysmic encounters, it was undeniable that these two nations were operating at a higher level than both the All Blacks and England – respectively ranked three and five in the world – who were involved in their own absorbing mini-series at the same time.
The rugby in the republic had more dynamism and edge. The collisions had more impact, the respective strategies more depth, and complexity and the general accuracy was higher – all of which made it impossible not to think that the All Blacks have some ground to make up if they are to reclaim the summit.
And this is effectively the essence of the challenge facing Scott Robertson as All Blacks’ coach – can he put the All Blacks back into the conversation alongside South Africa and Ireland?
Can the All Blacks rekindle a sense of intimidation and fear and return to playing such a powerful and effective brand of rugby as to win more often than they have in the last four years and persuade the rest of the world that they are again the country everyone else is chasing or aspiring to emulate?
There is some conjecture about how far and how hard the All Blacks have fallen in the last few years.
Most commentators have judged the decline through a hyperbolic lens – claiming that a winning record of 87% between 2012 and 2019, dropping to 70% between 2020 and 2024 represents the collapse of an empire and a rugby power in free fall.
A more nuanced and accurate assessment would be that the All Blacks won the Rugby Championship in 2021, 2022, and 2023, made the World Cup final (beating Ireland in the quarter-final), and are not in terminal decline. But they have also lost the ability to consistently produce the powerful, cohesive, innovative, rugby that came so naturally in the second decade of the millennium, and they have lost the art of holding their nerve in the crunch encounters.
There are two key statistical measures that best tell the story that the All Blacks have slipped rather than collapsed.
The first is that having spent the better part of a decade with a discernibly better win record than any other nation, the All Blacks’ 70% win ratio between 2021-2023, was well behind the 80% success rates posted by Ireland and France over the same period.
South Africa’s win ratio of 65% is strengthened by their World Cup success and by the fact they beat the All Blacks in four of the seven tests in which they played against each other in that same period.
And that’s the other key metric to take out of the last World Cup cycle – the All Blacks had inferior head-to-head records against all of Ireland (won two/lost three), France (lost two) and South Africa.
Robertson’s longer-term mission is to, therefore, once again differentiate the All Blacks from everyone else – and to restore the default setting where they start favourites no matter the opposition.
To do that, the All Blacks need to finish each season between now and the 2027 World Cup with the game’s best success ratio and to build dominant records against South Africa, Ireland, and France.
These are the two best measures by which to judge their status, as a higher overall win ratio will demonstrate they have found the consistency that went missing in the last cycle, and the dominant record against the highest ranked teams will speak to an ability to play their best rugby when the pressure is greatest.
Right now, Ireland and South Africa are the two countries everyone else feels they are trying to keep up with: the two nations who keep finding ways to innovate and improve, build their depth, and handle the big occasions.
