DUBLIN – More people in Northern Ireland now expect to join a united Ireland rather than stay in the U.K., according to a major new survey of public opinion rattled by Brexit.
It’s the first time that results from the annual Life and Times Survey — published two months early to capitalize on President Joe Biden’s visit to the Ulster University campus in Belfast — has found a plurality of public expectations tilting toward Irish unity and away from continued political union with Britain.
The shift has been pronounced since post-Brexit trade rules went live two years ago. To the anger of unionists, the U.K.-EU treaty left Northern Ireland subject to EU rules for goods so that cross-border trade could continue uninterrupted with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member.
While the same survey in 2020 found most people expected to be in the U.K. in 20 years’ time, opinion on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future had tightened to an even split a year later.
The latest finding, based on 1,405 people surveyed in late 2022, now finds that 45 percent of people think Northern Ireland will no longer be in the U.K. 20 years from now. Only 38 percent still think the union with Britain will remain. An even higher percentage – 63 percent, up 5 points from two years ago – thinks Brexit has made unification more likely in any time frame.
The shifting figures reflect both hopes and unease at the prospect, with unionists more determined than ever to oppose stronger ties with the republic at the expense of U.K. membership.
It’s why the Democratic Unionist Party for the past year has blocked the formation of a new Northern Ireland government. Their policy of obstruction remains despite the U.K.-EU breakthrough agreement in February that will simplify and reduce – but not eliminate – EU-required checks on British goods arriving at Northern Irish ports.
When asked what they personally want to happen, a plurality of those surveyed still favor continued U.K. membership – though the margin there continues to tighten, too, versus those seeking the creation of an all-island nation.
Were a referendum on uniting Ireland to happen tomorrow, 47 percent of respondents said they’d reject the proposition to stay British. That’s 6 points lower than two years ago. Those willing to vote now to erase that border has risen to a new high of 35 percent, up 5 points.
The Good Friday peace deal marking its 25th anniversary this week includes a key British government commitment to hold such a referendum if and when it appears majority opinion has shifted in favor of Irish unity.
The attitude shift looks even sharper using a longer lens, because the same survey in 2015 — the year before the Brexit referendum that a 56 percent majority rejected in Northern Ireland — rated public support for Irish unity at a paltry 14 percent.
Thursday’s survey results contain other indicators that the unexpected trade outcome from the Brexit deal continues to nudge Northern Irish attitudes away from the union — not yet anywhere close to an Irish nationalist victory, but all moving in that direction.
Among key swing voters in any referendum — those who identify as neither British unionist nor Irish nationalist — the proportion of those saying Brexit has made them favor Irish unity has risen 5 points to 43 percent in only the past year.
And on the key question of identity, those who consider themselves British and unionist has slid to a new low, Irish nationalist to a new high in this decades-old survey, which is conducted jointly by Ulster University and Queen’s University Belfast.
Thursday’s breakdown versus 2020 still has those identifying with neither sectarian camp on top with 38 percent (down 4 points), while unionists have fallen to 31 percent (also down 4) and nationalists have jumped to 26 percent (up 7).
