Syria is aiming to strengthen its relations with Ukraine, seeking “strategic partnerships” across political, economic, social, and scientific domains, according to Syria’s newly appointed foreign minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani. This move comes as Ukraine increasingly engages with Damascus’ new Islamist-led administration, which has distanced itself from Moscow, traditionally a strong ally of Syria under Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The changing political dynamics in Syria, combined with Russia’s diminishing influence in the region, have set the stage for new alliances, particularly in the realm of humanitarian aid and economic cooperation.
Ukraine to Increase Humanitarian Support
During a visit to Damascus on Monday, Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha discussed Ukraine’s plans to ramp up food aid shipments to Syria. The first shipment of wheat flour, which weighs 500 metric tons, is part of Ukraine’s “Grain from Ukraine” initiative, a humanitarian program aimed at addressing global food security concerns. According to reports, 20 additional shipments of flour are expected to reach Syria in the coming days, highlighting Ukraine’s increasing role in providing vital food supplies to countries in the Middle East, including Syria.
Syria’s foreign minister expressed gratitude for Ukraine’s commitment to assist, noting the shared hardships both nations have endured, with Syria’s civil war and Ukraine’s ongoing struggle against Russia drawing a stark parallel. Syria’s political and economic struggles are compounded by the complexities of its war-torn state, but the influx of aid from Ukraine could signal the beginning of closer ties between the two countries.
The Decline of Russian Influence in Syria
Russia’s position in Syria has been increasingly uncertain following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad’s government by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now wields significant control in parts of Syria. The shift in power has left Russia’s military presence in Syria—specifically its Hmeimim airbase and Tartous naval facility—facing new challenges. The future of these critical Russian military assets in Syria is now subject to negotiations with the new Syrian leadership.
Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov acknowledged the changing political landscape in Syria and confirmed that Moscow would engage in talks with Damascus over the status of its military bases. In an interview, Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, who heads the HTS-led government, affirmed Syria’s ongoing strategic ties with Russia, although he did not elaborate on the specifics of their future relationship. He emphasized that Syria’s international alliances should be based on mutual interests, signaling that Russia’s influence may no longer be as dominant as it once was.
Shift in Syria’s Economic Ties
Syria’s economic relations with Russia have also been affected by the changing political environment. Historically, Syria has relied on Russian wheat exports to meet its food needs, but this supply has been interrupted due to logistical challenges and delayed payments, compounded by the uncertain political future in Damascus. Reports indicate that Russian wheat exports to Syria were suspended as of December 2024, creating a vacuum that Ukraine is eager to fill.
Ukraine, a major global exporter of grain and oilseeds, has previously supplied wheat to other Middle Eastern nations but not to Syria. The disruption of Russian wheat exports has opened the door for Ukraine to expand its market share in the region. Ukraine’s agricultural sector, already a vital part of its economy, stands to benefit from increased trade and humanitarian support to countries like Syria, which have long depended on external food supplies.
Geopolitical Shifts and Implications for Russia
The growing ties between Syria and Ukraine come at a time when Russia’s geopolitical influence is waning, both in Syria and globally. Moscow’s struggle to maintain its military foothold in the region is compounded by the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has diverted much of its resources and attention. As Syrian factions, such as the HTS, reassess their alliances, Russia is facing increasing competition from other powers, including Ukraine, which is keen to forge new diplomatic and economic ties in the Middle East.
This shift could have significant consequences for Russia’s broader strategy in the region, as it will now have to navigate a more fragmented Syrian political landscape. Additionally, Moscow’s relationship with other Middle Eastern countries may also be impacted by Syria’s pivot toward Ukraine and the changing dynamics in the region.
Conclusion
As Syria redefines its international relations, the emerging partnership with Ukraine presents both challenges and opportunities. While Russia’s longstanding influence in Syria has been weakened, Ukraine is positioning itself as a key player in providing humanitarian assistance and fostering economic cooperation. The evolving geopolitical situation will likely continue to shift the balance of power in the Middle East, with Syria exploring new alliances and distancing itself from Moscow’s once-dominant role. The coming months may reveal how these new strategic relationships unfold, particularly as Syria seeks to regain stability and bolster its economic recovery amidst ongoing regional turbulence.
