Days from the US presidential election, the polls are showing the outcome of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains a nail biter.
With the United States our closest ally, the result could have potential implications for Australia in areas such as climate change policy, defence and the economy. If there is a Trump victory, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will also have the challenge of building a relationship with an unpredictable character.
To discuss the state of the contest and what comes next, we’re joined by Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Wolpe worked with the Democrats in Congress, and on the staff of Julia Gillard. Last year, he authored the book, Trump’s Australia.
Wolpe regards the election as too close to call.
They’re just deadlocked in two fundamental respects. National head-to-head across the country – the popular vote – they’re 49-48, 47-47, no one cracking 50, and there’s no clear favourite. And then that same pattern exists in all of the seven swing states that will decide the election per the Electoral College.
In terms of key issues:
Just as it is here in Australia, hip pocket is the strongest determinant of how you will vote, and so inflation and the state of the economy, in the lived experience, is the number one issue. Americans and Australians share the same experience over the past post-COVID years where there’s been an outbreak of inflation and high interest rates. And that means that the basket of goods that you buy day in, day out, week in, week out, from the supermarket to your petrol to your insurance prices are up between 10 and 40%.
The second big issue is immigration. As I’m sure you know from looking at the news over the past three years, just following things, the southern border with Mexico has been effectively out of control. It’s back under control but in that time, perhaps millions of people have flowed into the United States.
The third big issue is abortion rights, reproductive health rights and its future. The Supreme Court two years ago repealed Roe v Wade, which established a right found in the Constitution for women to take care of their reproductive health services. That’s the first time that a universal human constitutional right has been repealed since Dred Scott in the Civil War [denying slaves’ rights]. Three generations of women have grown up with the protections for them.
This has become a very powerful issue. And 52% of all voters are women.
On what either a Harris or a Trump administration might look like for Australia:
I think with Harris, we would just see very strong continuity with Biden. I mean, on foreign policy issues, they really have worked together.
The relationship with Australia is fine. Her relationship with the Prime Minister is absolutely fine. They know each other, can work together, a very comfortable working relationship.
[As to] Trump and Australia: first, I really have to say in the first [Trump] term, I think Australia had the most untroubled relationship with Trump than any other country in the world, and that includes Israel, that includes Europe, that includes Canada.
There is a structural trade surplus that the United States has with Australia. So Australia is not number one on the hit list of nations that are, quote, taking advantage of the United States in their trade agreements. […] It will start off in Trump’s head with all the countries that he wants to go after – I don’t think Australia is high on the list.
However, on a personal level, Wolpe says there might be some issues between Trump and Albanese:
I think personally it will be rocky at the start for several reasons. First, Trump will be briefed on everything that the Prime Minister has said on him and his presidency. And he attacked Trump for the January 6th insurrection. He’s for abortion rights and attacked the ruling of the Supreme Court. He’s for gun control, and Australia has a completely different posture on gun control, and Trump is strong on the Second Amendment. If Trump looks at the agenda of the Albanese government, it is a mirror image of Joe Biden’s domestic policy agenda adjusted for realities in both countries. But it’s the same deal.
