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KYIV — After missing multiple self-imposed deadlines for capturing Bakhmut, Russia continues to throw more of its soldiers into the grinding battle in the Donetsk region in a desperate bid for something to tout during next week’s Victory Day parade in Moscow.
Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II every year on May 9, and President Vladimir Putin has used the holiday to boost his image as a strongman over the course of his decades in power. But this year’s celebrations will be somewhat muted, with Putin canceling parades in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, which border Ukraine, and in Russian-occupied Crimea, citing security concerns. With Moscow now in the second year of its full-scale war on Ukraine and no sign of imminent victory, Putin is pushing to win a battle to sell to Russians on May 9.
But with the U.S. estimating that 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since December and a further 80,000 injured, Kyiv is determined to rob Putin of any positive PR, and Ukrainian forces are digging in, with heavy fighting continuing around Bakhmut.
“The occupiers can already claim the Guinness record for the frequency of changing deadlines. After May 1 did not work, it was postponed to May 9,” said Serhii Cherevatyi, the spokesman for Ukraine’s Army Command East, referring to Russia’s attempts to take Bakhmut, a strategic town that has seen some of the heaviest fighting in recent months.
Though Russia reportedly controls most of Bakhmut, Cherevatyi said Ukraine still holds the western part of the town and that supply routes are open. Although Russians are throwing more soldiers at their positions, Kyiv’s forces say they are holding the line and have even managed to take back some territory.
“Despite the significant losses of the enemy, new assault groups of Wagner, fighters of other private companies and paratroopers are constantly rushing into battle. But the enemy fails to take control of the city,” Ukrainian Land Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a statement. “In some parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions.”
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday that “since December, we estimate that Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties, including over 20,000 killed in action.” Referring to the “really stunning” numbers, Kirby said that of those killed, nearly half were from the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group of mercenaries, “the majority of whom were Russian convicts that were thrown into combat in Bakhmut.” Kirby did not offer an estimate of Ukrainian casualties.
“Russia’s attempt at a winter offensive in the Donbas largely through Bakhmut has failed,” Kirby said.
According to the Institute for the Study of War think tank, some Russian positions in Bakhmut are vulnerable to counterattacks — and there could be opportunities for Ukraine to come. Last week, Wagner Group financier and leader Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut if Russia’s military command failed to provide more ammunition to the mercenaries, ISW reported, quoting Prigozhin’s interview with a Kremlin-affiliated military blogger.
Wagner fighters will need to “withdraw in an organized manner or stay and die” if the situation does not immediately improve, Prigozhin reportedly said.
Even if Russians do take Bakhmut, the battle will continue, as Ukraine sets up new defensive positions outside the town center.
“Immediately behind Bakhmut, new frontiers of our defense await,” the Ukrainian Army’s 46th Airmobile Brigade, which is fighting in Bakhmut, said on Telegram. “The war will move from urban conditions to the field.”
