BERLIN — The rulers of Germany’s fractious three-party coalition government can breathe a small sigh of relief.
In an internal party referendum, some 52 percent of members of the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) supported remaining in the ruling coalition, relieving some of the pressure on the FDP’s leadership to withdraw from the alliance amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance.
The result of the vote, announced on Monday, should dampen speculation that FDP leaders will abandon the coalition to revive the party’s popularity among its voter base. Polls show the FDP at around 5 percent support, far below the 11.5 percent the party won at the last federal election in 2021, and leaving it in peril of being booted from the legislature in the next election. Parties need to win at least 5 percent to enter Germany’s parliament.
The FDP, led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, entered the coalition with two center-left parties — the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens — while promising to keep spending in check. But a series of crises have led the government to suspend the country’s constitutional debt brake, which restricts the federal deficit to 0.35 percent of GDP except in emergencies, for four years in a row.
It’s been a very bad look for a finance minister who portrays himself as a fiscal hawk. And things grew even worse for Lindner in November, when Germany’s top court ruled that a government plan to repurpose €60 billion left over from an emergency COVID fund to finance the ruling coalition’s green agenda was unconstitutional. The ruling also had wider implications, limiting the government’s ability to draw from a variety of special funds that had allowed it to spend without violating the debt brake.
The FDP referendum had been launched by a group of rebel members who wanted the party to quit the government. Although the vote was non-binding, a different result would have increased the political pressure on Lindner to abandon the coalition. Such an outcome would in turn have constrained Chancellor Olaf Scholz to call a confidence vote that he would likely have lost.
But as unpopular as the ruling coalition is, FDP leaders likely believe that remaining part of it is the lesser of two evils, and that should the party leave, voters would punish it for the resulting political chaos.
Christian Dürr, the chair of the FDP’s parliamentary group, welcomed the outcome of the internal vote, saying it “confirms that the FDP stands by its responsibilities even in challenging times.”
He added, however, that the FDP “must continue to work on moving our country forward with liberal policies,” a statement that could be read as a warning to the SPD and the Greens that the FDP intends to push back on their agendas.
The fragile unity of the coalition will likely be tested in the coming weeks as the government seeks to finalize a 2024 budget deal and push it through parliament.
The SPD and the Greens want to maintain spending on social welfare and on projects to finance Germany’s green industrial transition. FDP leaders, however, have rejected another debt brake suspension to allow the government to maintain planned spending in these areas, forcing the administration to propose spending cuts to fill an estimated €17 billion gap.
Although the three parties last month reached a tentative deal on the 2024 budget, the agreement appeared to unravel after Lindner and other FDP leaders voiced skepticism over the planned abolition of tax breaks for farmers.
German farmers, who in December organized a large demonstration in Berlin over the planned tax hikes, have already announced a new mass protest for later this month.
