Migration fight returns to Europe – POLITICO

The fight has turned vicious — and public.  

Austria is openly accusing Hungary of allowing migrants to pass unregistered across its border. France has attacked Italy for redirecting migrant rescue ships from its ports. Bulgaria has been fuming after the Dutch prime minister suggested migrants could cross into the country from Turkey with a quick €‎50 bribe. 

With the number of people entering the EU illegally reaching levels not seen since 2016 and European leaders eyeing a series of electoral tests, including the European Parliament election in 2024, migration is back on the European Union agenda — in the worst possible way. 

The bloc’s leaders gathering in Brussels for a special summit this week are expected to debate the EU’s overall migration strategy for the first time since 2018. But they aren’t expected to resolve it, or even make much progress. 

The obstacle: politics. Everybody wants to be seen taking a strong stance on the issue; few can afford to be perceived as willing to compromise on what voters see as their national interests. 

“I’ve learned over the years that taking very principled positions on these issues is great for the press,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told a small group of journalists last month. But when EU leaders get together, “we have to find practical solutions which will somehow get to a majority view. And at the end, it has to be unanimity.” 

Rutte should know. As one of the bloc’s longest-serving leaders, he’s been grappling with the issue since 2010. Under pressure ahead of provincial elections in March, he’s keen to show that he’s defending Dutch interests. Rutte was also one of a handful of leaders who pushed to have the issue on the leaders’ agenda — even if he’s since downplayed expectations.  

“I don’t think that on February 9 and 10, we will say, ‘Now the problem is solved.’ But that we will have a much sharper idea of what we need to keep working on,” he told journalists ahead of the summit. The idea is that those decisions “will lead to further steps in March and April.” 

Rising arrivals 

Migration occupies a unique space in the Brussels policy spectrum.

While conventional thinking dictates that the most difficult issues are best resolved by EU leaders hashing it out around the European Council table, the dominant theory in Brussels is that migration policy can actually only advance out of the spotlight.

For now, that doesn’t seem to be an option. After a lull during the COVID pandemic, the number of people crossing into the EU without permission is increasing.

“The EU saw a major rise in irregular arrivals on routes arrivals on routes across the Mediterranean and the Western Balkans, the highest figure since 2016,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote in a letter to leaders ahead of the summit. 

The EU border agency Frontex estimates that some 330,000 people crossed into the EU “irregularly” last year, a 64 percent increase over 2021. While that figure remains far below the peak of the 2015-16 migration surge, when roughly 1.8 million migrants and refugees entered the bloc outside normal channels, it comes on top of some 4 million Ukrainian refugees currently living in the EU. 

For von der Leyen, the issue’s reemergence is a challenge. After her 2020 proposal to overhaul the EU’s process for processing and distributing migrants failed to gain traction, the Commission president has tried to soft-pedal the issue — with two notable exceptions.

The Commission reacted quickly after Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine, taking just 10 days to give Ukrainians the right to stay and work in the EU. It also acted swiftly in 2021 to counter an attempt by the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko “to flood” the EU with migrants. 

But for the most part, von der Leyen has seemed content to let national leaders take the lead. An agreement among 18 EU countries in August last year to redistribute some 10,000 migrants rescued at sea by countries like Italy was seen as a sign of what can be achieved when the klieg lights are off. 

‘Back with a vengeance’ 

Now, however, the spotlight has very much returned.  

Recent gains by far-right politicians like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, France’s Marine Le Pen, Spain’s Vox party and the Sweden Democrats have spurred mainstream conservatives to harden their stances. 

Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party — a pan-European umbrella of conservative parties ranging from von der Leyen’s German Christian Democrats to former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia — has seized on the issue ahead of the European Parliament election next year. 

“We are sleepwalking into a new migration crisis,” Weber told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook recently.

“The reception capacities for migrants via the Balkan and Mediterranean routes are exhausted,” he warned. “Since the EU failed to adopt a comprehensive policy after the last migration crisis in 2015, the issue has become taboo. It is now coming back with a vengeance.” 

Indeed, the issue has become a flashpoint among EU governments.  

Austria accused Hungary — a major entry point for migrants into the EU — of not properly registering new arrivals that cross through the country on their way westward (a charge Hungary denies).

“I have never made a secret of the fact that all states must comply with applicable EU law, including Hungary,” said Karoline Edtstadler, Austria’s Europe minister.

And in November, after a rescue ship carrying 230 migrants was redirected to France when Italy refused to let it dock, French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin warned of “extremely severe consequences” for relations between the two countries and said Paris would suspend plans to take in refugees from Italy.  

Bulgarian President Rumen Radev also publicly lashed out at Rutte after the Dutch prime minister defended his decision to block Bulgaria’s bid to join the EU’s visa-free Schengen Area by alleging migrants could cross into the country with a €50 euro bribe. 

Commission proposal 

The rising acrimony has forced the Commission to take the issue in hand once again, following up on action plans to tackle migration through the Central Mediterranean and the Western Balkans.

In her letter to EU leaders, von der Leyen laid out a series of piecemeal proposals that, she said, would make an immediate difference.” Some, like strengthening the bloc’s external borders or facilitating the repatriation of rejected asylum seekers, are likely to gain the support of leaders assembling this week.  

Others, like insisting on registering of migrants in the countries where they arrive or agreeing on a common list of safe, non-EU countries for migrants to be sent to outside the bloc, will likely prove far more difficult. 

Another sticking point could be the use of EU money to build fences. The Austrians are pushing the proposal, buoyed by support from European People’s Party leaders like Weber. But the Commission has consistently rejected it, arguing that erecting barriers only redirects migrants to other entry points. 

What’s unlikely to be achieved — as long as the issue remains in full glare of European politics — is agreement on the Commission’s 2020 proposed overhaul. 

For now, the so-called New Pact on Migration and Asylum has been relegated to the bottom of the agenda, according to a draft text, seen by POLITICO, of what leaders are expected to agree upon. The text calls on leaders to “complete the work” as they return to the issue “on a regular basis.” 

If there’s one thing for von der Leyen to take comfort in, it’s that the bar to claim forward momentum is low.  

The last time the EU leaders discussed the bloc’s migration strategy, in 2018, they squabbled into the early morning before finally agreeing on a plan to send back rejected asylum seekers. 

It was never implemented.