IATA’s global air cargo data for January 2023 shows that demand declined as economic
headwinds persisted.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), fell 14.9% compared to January 2022
(-16.2% for international operations).
Capacity, measured in
available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), was up 3.9% compared to
January 2022, the first year-on-year growth in capacity
since October 2022.
International cargo capacity increased 1.4%
compared to January 2022. The uptick in ACTKs reflects the strong recovery of belly capacity in passenger airline markets offsetting
a decline international capacity offered by dedicated freighters.
Several factors in the operating environment should be
noted:
– The global new export orders component of the
manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator of cargo demand, increased
in January for the first time since October 2022. For major
economies, new export orders are growing, and in China and the US,
PMI levels are close to the critical 50-mark indicating that
demand for manufactured goods from the world’s two largest
economies is stabilizing.
– Global goods trade decreased by
3% in December, this was the second monthly decline in a row.
– The Consumer Price Index for G7 countries decreased from
7.4% in November to 6.7% in January. Inflation in producer (input)
prices reduced by 2.2 percentage points to 9.6% in December.
“With January cargo demand down 14.9% and capacity
up 3.9%, 2023 began under some challenging business conditions.
That was accompanied by persistent uncertainties, including war in
Ukraine, inflation, and labor shortages,” said Willie Walsh,
IATA’s Director General. “But there is solid ground for some
cautious optimism about air cargo. Yields remain higher than
pre-pandemic. And China’s much faster than expected shift from its
zero COVID policy is stabilizing production conditions in air
cargo’s largest source market. That will give a much-needed demand
boost as companies increase their engagement with China.”
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 19%
in January 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was an
improvement in performance compared to December (-21.2%). Airlines
in the region continue to be impacted by lower levels of trade and
manufacturing activity and disruptions in supply chains due to the
residual effects of COVID restrictions that were imposed by China.
The Lunar New Year will also have
impacted cargo volumes in January. Available capacity in the
region increased by 8.8% compared to January 2022.
North American carriers posted an 8.7% decrease in cargo
volumes in January 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This
was a slight decrease in performance compared to December (-8.5%).
Capacity increased 2.3% compared to January 2022.
European carriers saw the weakest performance of all regions with
a 20.4% decrease in cargo volumes in January 2023 compared to the
same month in 2022. This was a decrease in performance compared to
December (-19.4%). Airlines in the region continue to be most
affected by the war in Ukraine. Capacity decreased 9.3% in January
2023 compared to January 2022.
Middle Eastern
carriers experienced a 11.8% year-on-year decrease in cargo
volumes in January 2023. This was an improvement to the previous
month (-14.4%). Capacity increased 9.6% compared to January 2022.
Latin American carriers reported a 4.6% increase
in cargo volumes in January 2023 compared to January 2022. This
was the strongest performance of all regions, and a significant
improvement in performance compared to December which saw no
growth. Capacity in January was up 34.4% compared to the same
month in 2022.
African airlines saw cargo volumes
decrease by 9.5% in January 2023 compared to January 2022. This
was an improvement in performance compared to the previous month
(-10%). Capacity was 1.8% below January 2022 levels.
