The EU is unlikely to amend its 11th Russia sanctions package to permanently shut natural gas pipelines the Kremlin turned off following its invasion of Ukraine, even though it’s up for discussion at the upcoming G7 summit, diplomats told POLITICO.
According to draft conclusions seen by the Financial Times, the G7 club of rich democracies meeting in Japan is mulling a measure that would bar countries like Germany and Poland from resuming imports of natural gas from Russia even if the Kremlin decides to turn the taps back on.
But that would have to be accepted by G7 members like Germany and Italy, which still have pipeline links to Russia, even if the gas flowing through them has dropped off to almost nothing, and EU officials and analysts say there is no consensus in support of the idea.
“From what I hear, it is very unlikely this will pass,” said one diplomat from an EU country that had its Russian gas cut off last year, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.
“There is too much resistance from the countries dependent on the remaining gas,” the diplomat added. “The 11th sanctions package is almost done and inserting this huge measure at this moment is not going to work.”
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied over 40 percent of the EU’s gas imports. That’s now fallen to less than 8 percent, according the Bruegel think tank.
Two of the largest prewar routes, the undersea Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and the Yamal pipeline running across Poland, have seen flows drop to zero. Transit via pipelines running across Ukraine is about a quarter of the prewar level, with only the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea running at levels similar to before the invasion.
Russia has dangled the possibility of reopening the taps; President Vladimir Putin in October said his country is ready to restart supplies if necessary.
The G7 gambit is designed to “curb attempts to resurrect Nord Stream,” above all to quell voices in Germany and any other countries where there “may be companies and consumers who may be interested in resuming imports” of Russian pipeline gas one day, said Aura Sabadus, a senior analyst at the market intelligence firm ICIS.
It could also help build pressure for including pipelines in an eventual 12th round of EU sanctions.
That’s exactly what Kyiv hopes will happen.
“The prohibition of pipeline imports of Russian gas can be a good symbolic step,” Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko told POLITICO. “It could disable one comfortable way for Russia to blackmail the EU and corrupt European politicians.”
The European Commission declined to comment on the pipeline sanctions report.
