The wind of change
For two decades, two men have waged a battle for Poland’s soul. In the blue corner, fighting for a democratic, modern, European vision of the future: Donald Tusk, a former prime minister who served as president of the European Council before returning as leader of the centrist opposition; in the red corner, duking it out for the traditionalists, the Catholic conservatives, the nationalists: Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). Each man has had a chance to shape Poland in his image, only to have the other wind back the clock. Now, after eight years of Kaczyński, the country is on the cusp of a new age of Tusk, and the wind of change is blowing once more.
Tusk’s showing in October’s election, in which the charismatic 66-year-old led a grouping of parties ranging in views from the center right to the left, gives his coalition a clear path to power. His performance in the EU’s fifth most-populous country — secured despite increasingly desperate attempts by PiS to tilt the playing field using the state-controlled media and Poland’s coffers — showed that even in a flawed system, it is possible to beat back entrenched populists on a platform of returning to the mainstream.
It’s a sliver of hope for centrists across the Continent, who have watched in despair as populist forces moved from the fringes and into government: Giorgia Meloni is in power in Italy, Putin pal Robert Fico is back in Slovakia, the far-right Alternative for Germany is surging in the polls, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s right-wing Fidesz party looks stronger than ever. And that’s before anyone mentions the two blond elephants in the room: the Donald T. on the other side of the Atlantic, and Geert Wilders’ stunning first-place finish in the Dutch election.
Tusk’s showing is being celebrated perhaps nowhere more so than in Brussels, where he’s well known and liked after his stint as European Council president from 2014 to 2019. Under PiS, the Polish government had long been at odds with the EU over backsliding on the rule of law. It has introduced a series of reforms that the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled compromised judicial independence, fiercely criticized EU institutions and voted against key legislation. If Tusk does manage to form a government, he has vowed to undo his predecessors’ court reforms — a move that would likely see the EU drop its various attempts to rein in Warsaw — and shepherd Poland out of the deep freeze and back into the heart of the EU’s decision-making.
The reverberations of Tusk’s return would be felt around Europe. Polish-German relations plunged during PiS’s years in power, amid Warsaw’s persistent demands that Berlin pay more than €1 trillion in war reparations, trotted out every time the ruling party needed a boost in the polls. Poland’s relations with France have also been tense, with the PiS government berating President Emmanuel Macron over his Kremlin outreach efforts (and the Frenchman giving as good as he got). With Tusk at Poland’s helm once more and making conciliatory noises, these tensions would likely ease, and the Poland-France-Germany security troika could get back to business.
In Hungary, Orbán would lose one of his most important partners. Budapest and Warsaw kept each other safe by vetoing attempts to trigger the so-called Article 7 procedure that suspends governments’ EU voting rights when there’s been a breach of fundamental Union values. With Kaczyński vanquished, Orbán is exposed. The Hungarian has a new potential ally in Slovakia, but Bratislava isn’t facing Article 7 procedures the way Poland did, making Fico unlikely to go out on a limb to save his Hungarian counterpart. And while Wilders’ win in the Netherlands’ election could ultimately offer Orbán a new lifeline, in the messy world of Dutch politics it could take him months and months to form a governing coalition, if he manages to do so at all.
The prospect of a Tusk-led Poland would see Kyiv breathing a sigh of relief. While Warsaw has strongly backed Ukraine over the past two years of war, in recent months tensions have boiled over over Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Tusk, a longtime Russia hawk, has called for unwavering support for Kyiv.
To be sure, Tusk won’t be able to change Poland overnight. His Civic Coalition received fewer votes than Law and Justice, meaning he’ll need to rely on coalition partners to push through legislation. Meanwhile, eight years in power have given Kaczyński’s forces plenty of time to entrench. The government leaves behind allies who will need to be pried out of key roles. Tusk will also have to contend with PiS ally Andrzej Duda, the president with veto powers who has given the incumbent prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, a first (likely doomed) shot at forming a government. With the next presidential election not until 2025, expect the Tusk vs. Kaczyński battle to continue to drag on into the late rounds.
Check out the full POLITICO 28: Class of 2024, and read the Letter from the Editors for an explanation of the thinking behind the ranking.
