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Greens may be a problem for Labor in next week’s Tasmanian no-confidence vote
WORLD

Greens may be a problem for Labor in next week’s Tasmanian no-confidence vote

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneAugust 15, 2025August 15, 2025

The Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats at the July 19 Tasmanian…

Newspoll shows Labor’s lead steady at 52–48
WORLD

Newspoll shows Labor’s lead steady at 52–48

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneApril 27, 2025April 27, 2025

While last week’s Morgan and YouGov polls had Labor continuing its surge, Newspoll is steady…

Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater
WORLD

Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneApril 18, 2025April 18, 2025

Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead…

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll
WORLD

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneMarch 30, 2025March 30, 2025

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election…

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls
WORLD

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneMarch 17, 2025March 17, 2025

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of…

Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election
WORLD

Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneMarch 9, 2025March 9, 2025

With 61% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday’s Western Australian election, the ABC is calling…

Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee
WORLD

Liberals gain Prahran from Greens and Labor ahead in Werribee

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneFebruary 9, 2025February 9, 2025

Byelections occurred on Saturday in the Victorian state seats of Prahran and Werribee. The Liberals…

Albanese records worst Newspoll ratings this term; Victorian Labor’s primary plunges
WORLD

Albanese records worst Newspoll ratings this term; Victorian Labor’s primary plunges

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneJanuary 27, 2025January 27, 2025

A national Newspoll, conducted January 20–24 from a sample of 1,259, gave the Coalition a…

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing
WORLD

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneNovember 17, 2024November 17, 2024

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With…

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election
WORLD

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneAugust 25, 2024August 25, 2024

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s…

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