Author: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the late February Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down two), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 16% for all Others (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, this would be about a 50–50 tie. Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point to -10, while Peter Dutton’s slid four points to -12. In the last two months, Albanese is up eight and Dutton down eight. It’s…

With 61% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday’s Western Australian election, the ABC is calling 40 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, five for the Liberals and four for the Nationals, with ten remaining undecided. Vote shares are 41.8% Labor (down 18.1% since Labor’s massive 2021 win), 28.6% Liberals (up 7.3%), 5.1% Nationals (up 1.1%), 10.5% Greens (up 3.6%), 3.7% One Nation (up 2.4%), 3.1% Australian Christians (up 1.6%), 2.3% Legalise Cannabis (up 1.9%) and 3.6% independents (up 2.9%). While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn’t go…

Byelections occurred on Saturday in the Victorian state seats of Prahran and Werribee. The Liberals gained Prahran from the Greens by a 51.6–48.4 margin, a 13.6% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 36.2% Liberals (up 4.8%), 36.2% Greens (down 0.6%), 12.8% for independent Tony Lupton, the Labor member for Prahran from 2002 to 2010, and 5.3% for another independent. Labor did not contest after winning 26.8% in 2022. The primary vote swings between the Greens and Liberals only explain 2.7% of the 13.6% two-candidate swing. In 2022, Labor preferences would have flowed strongly to…

A national Newspoll, conducted January 20–24 from a sample of 1,259, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll in early December. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down two), 12% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (up one). In three of the last four Newspolls, the Coalition has had a 51–49 lead. This is the consensus of the polls at the moment, as can be seen from the graph below. The federal election is not due until May, and this position is recoverable…

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down 17.8%), 15.6% Greens (up 3.8%) and 5.6% Australian Families (new). SA doesn’t allow pre-poll and postal votes to be counted on election night, so the count is only up to 42% of enrolled voters. ABC election analyst Antony Green expects the large number of pre-poll and postal votes to reduce…

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6. Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60. Robert F. Kennedy Jr withdrew from the presidential contest in swing states on Friday US time and endorsed Trump. Silver…