IATA’s global air cargo data for September 2022
shows softened demand.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers
(CTK or FTK), fell 10.6% when compared to September 2021 (-10.6%
also for international operations), but continued to track at near
pre-pandemic levels (-3.6%).
Capacity was 2.4% above September 2021 (+5% for
international operations) but still 7.4% below September 2019
levels (-8.1% for international operations).
Several factors
in the operating environment should be noted:
– Following
contractions across major economies, the global Purchasing
Managers Index (PMI) for new export orders also contracted (for a
third month in a row) to its lowest level in two years;
–
Latest global goods trade figures showed a 5.2% expansion in
August, a positive sign for the global economy although it is expected
to primarily benefit maritime cargo, with a slight boost for air
cargo as well;
– Oil prices remained stable in September and the
jet fuel crack spread fell from a peak in June; and
– The
Consumer Price Index stabilized in G7 countries in September, but
at a decades high level of 7.7%. Inflation in producer (input)
prices slowed to 13.7% in August.
“While air
cargo’s activity continues to track near to 2019 levels, volumes
remain below 2021’s exceptional performance as the industry faces
some headwinds,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “At the consumer level, with travel restrictions
lifting post-pandemic, people are likely to spend more on vacation
travel and less on e-commerce. And at the macro-level, increasing
recession warnings are likely to have a negative impact on the
global flows of goods and services, balanced slightly by a
stabilization of oil prices. Against this backdrop, air cargo is
bearing up well. And a strategic slow-down in capacity growth from
6.3% in August to 2.4% in September demonstrates the flexibility
the industry has in adjusting to economic developments.”
Asia-Pacific airlines
saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 10.7% in September 2022
compared to the same month in 2021. This was a decline in
performance compared to August (-8.3%). Airlines in the region
continue to be impacted by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, labor
shortages, and lower levels of trade and manufacturing activity
due to Omicron-related restrictions in China. Available capacity
in the region increased by 2.8% compared to 2021.
North
American carriers posted a 6% decrease in cargo volumes in
September 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was a
decline in performance compared to August (3.4%). Capacity was up
4.6% compared to September 2021.
European carriers saw a
15.6% decrease in cargo volumes in September 2022 compared to the
same month in 2021. This was on a par with August’s performance
(-15.1%). This is attributable to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Labor
shortages and high inflation levels, most notably in Turkey, also
affected volumes. Capacity increased 0.2% in September 2022
compared to September 2021.
Middle Eastern carriers
experienced a 15.8% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in
September 2022, the worst performance of all regions and
a significant decline compared to the previous month (-11.3%).
Stagnant cargo volumes to/from Europe impacted the region’s
performance. Capacity was down 2.8% compared to September 2021.
Latin American carriers reported an increase of 10.8% in
cargo volumes in September 2022 compared to September 2021. This
was the strongest performance of all regions. Airlines in this
region have shown optimism by introducing new services and
capacity, and in some cases investing in additional aircraft for
air cargo in the coming months. Capacity in September was up 18.4%
compared to the same month in 2021.
African airlines saw
cargo volumes increase by 0.1% in September 2022 compared to
September 2021, a slight decrease in the growth recorded
the previous month (1%). Capacity was 4.1% below September 2021
levels.
