LONDON — When Kate Forbes declared she was running to replace the departing Nicola Sturgeon at the top of Scottish politics, the assumption was that she would be the candidate to beat.
Just 48 hours later, that assumption has been largely destroyed.
The rising Scottish National Party star’s bid for the leadership is on life support after she gave a string of interviews in which she was brutally honest about her social views, which include being against same-sex marriage, gender self-identification and sex outside of marriage.
In a party known for its socially liberal base and the self-styled “progressive” leadership of Sturgeon, such views are largely considered anathema for any politician seeking its highest office.
Two SNP MPs — one initially a Forbes supporter and the other a supporter of rival candidate Humza Yousaf — said Forbes now has no chance of winning the leadership race she entered as a hot favorite Monday morning.
Here’s how it all went wrong.
Monday
9:40 a.m. Scottish Constitution Secretary and early bookmakers’ favorite Angus Robertson announces he won’t be running — throwing the race wide open.
11 a.m. Forbes, the finance secretary, declares during Humza Yousaf’s official campaign launch. With a glossy video from her native highlands, Forbes says she is a “unifier” who will “unleash the full talent of the SNP” to deliver independence. It was about as good as things got.
11:01 a.m. In a now-deleted tweet, Scottish government minister Richard Lochhead says he is “delighted” Forbes has thrown her hat into the ring.
11:06 a.m. The veteran SNP MP Pete Wishart tweets that he is “really pleased” Forbes is standing, a few moments after saying he hopes she isn’t deterred from standing by “all this rubbish about her religious beliefs.”
There was much discussion around Forbes’ faith and how that influences her views on social affairs as she mulled a tilt at the leadership.
11:45 a.m. The SNP MP Drew Hendry backs Forbes, praising her “powerful message.”
1:31 p.m. As more endorsements fly in for Forbes, the Children’s Minister Clare Haughey tweets her support.
Afternoon: One Forbes supporter close to her campaign predicts “legitimate questions” will come up over her views on social issues.
“She’ll have to have good answers on all of those fronts from the off,” this person said. “Having convincing arguments on those — that will define the rest of the campaign for her. Otherwise it becomes a headache and a distraction,” they added, presciently.
In fact, a few hours later, that same supporter became a former supporter as clips from Forbes’ leadership-launching interviews started to drop.
4 p.m. The first Forbes interview goes online.
The finance secretary tells the BBC she has “significant concerns” about gender self-identification and that — if she wasn’t on maternity leave at the time — she wouldn’t have voted for Sturgeon’s contentious bill introducing exactly that.
Given any minister opposed to the reforms would have had to resign, the revelation is a big one. It was also nothing compared to what was to come.
6:24 p.m. Forbes declares in an interview with the Scotsman that she would have voted against gay marriage, stunning allies and opponents alike.
“I would have voted, as a matter of conscience, along the lines of mainstream teaching in most major religions that marriage is between a man and a woman,” she said, citing Angela Merkel — the former chancellor and leader of the conservative Christian Democrats in Germany — as an example of a politician who did the same.
Stunned supporters saw no need for such brutal honesty on a hypothetical question, given the Scottish parliament voted to legalize same-sex marriage two years before Forbes became a lawmaker.
Her assertion that she would respect the democratic choice made and is “not a dictator” does little to soothe the fears of LGBT Scots concerned a potential leader may not see their relationships as morally legitimate.
7 p.m. Forbes doubles down in a Channel 4 interview, asserting that she believes marriage is “between a man and a woman.”
8:43 p.m. Wishart revises his earlier (9 hours and 43 minutes ago) words on Forbes.
“Kate had every chance to say that she would be prepared to come in behind the party’s social liberal agenda. It looks like she wasn’t prepared to take it. There’s only one place to go now,” he tweets.
10:40 p.m. Lochhead retracts his half-throated support for Forbes — even telling the BallotBoxScotland website he never actually backed her in the first place.
11:31 p.m. Another early Forbes backer, the MSP Gillian Martin, says she is “uncomfortable” with Forbes’ comments. She fully withdraws her support by the morning.
Tuesday
7:20 a.m. Haughey becomes the latest in a veritable business of reverse-ferrets shelving their early support for Forbes.
8:05 a.m. In an interview on BBC Scotland, a defiant Forbes argues — complete with unfortunate wording — that the public are “longing for politicians to answer straight questions with straight answers.”
She also argues the “storm” is taking place entirely on Twitter.
8:10 a.m. Tom Arthur, a minister working for Forbes and one of her early supporters, withdraws his support while Forbes is still defending her comments on the radio.
11:21 a.m. MP Hendry, a fellow highlander, says he no longer supports Forbes — who at this point has lost a full third of her declared lawmaker endorsements.
11:28 a.m. “I believe a trans woman is a biological male,” Forbes tells ITV Representing Border.
The Herald newspaper reports that the SNP’s LGBTQ+ wing has submitted a formal complaint to the party’s top brass over the comments, which they said breached the party’s rules on transphobia.
Noon: When asked by the Scotsman about a proposed ban on conversion therapy — the discredited process of attempting to change an individual’s sexual orientation or gender identity — Forbes switches the topic onto “defending the rights of other minorities, like people of faith.”
A spokesperson for the End Conversion Therapy Scotland campaign says the idea that a ban on conversion poses a threat to religious freedom is “simply not true.”
12:18 p.m. Forbes adds another contentious view into the mix during an interview with Sky News.
“In terms of my faith, my faith would say that children — and sex — is for marriage,” Forbes says. Pressed further, she says that while “it doesn’t fuss me” if others live that way, Forbes believes sex outside of marriage is “wrong.”
1:28 p.m. In her interview with STV, Forbes is reduced to insisting only that she’s staying in the race “at the moment” — sparking speculation she may drop out after a torrid first 24 hours.
3:55 p.m. Forbes’ closest ally and campaign manager Ivan McKee tells Channel 4 he “firmly supports” marriage equality.
McKee doesn’t say if he still supports her, asserting only that he’ll “be talking to Kate later on about the campaign.”
9:09 p.m. Asked if Forbes plans to remain in the race, her spokesperson is unequivocal.
“She certainly is,” they text back.
Midnight: The Times publish a story that suggests McKee — remember, her actual campaign manager — has lost faith in Forbes and urged her to quit.
Wednesday
8:05 a.m. Sturgeon’s loyal longtime deputy John Swinney adds his voice to the chorus of criticism.
“Kate is perfectly entitled to express her views, but party members are equally entitled to decide if someone who holds those views would be an appropriate individual to be SNP leader and first minister,” Swinney — rather pointedly — told BBC Scotland.
According to her camp, Forbes took Wednesday off. As her candidacy heads onto its fourth day, it hangs in the balance.
While her team insists she remains committed to the race, some suspect she won’t reach a fifth.
